MIRA valuation estimate: TGE FDV range and yapper reward math
Post454 words
Estimates a $100M to $500M TGE FDV for Mira from its $9M seed, 3B+ daily verifications, 250K+ Klok downloads and rumoured Kraken and OKX listings. Works out yapper pool value at 0.5% of supply: $500k at $100M FDV, $2.5M at $500M.
Key claims
Mira processes 3B+ daily token verifications
$9M seed led by Bitkraft and Framework Ventures
0.5% of supply to yappers: $500k at $100M FDV, $2.5M at $500M
What will "the truth layer of AI" be valued at?
Mira is a mature infra layer with unique tech, making for a strong defensive moat. It's main product is Mira Verify, an API-based verification service and significant contributor to Mira's 3B+ in daily token verifications.
Its flagship application is the Klok app with 250K+ downloads, and provides trustless verified intelligence on command.
The only publicly disclosed fundraising event is a $9M seed round led by Bitkraft and Framework Ventures in July 2024 (with no known valuation).
The market that Mira addresses is likely worth billions if not trillions of dollars, spanning high-stakes use cases vertical spanning from healthcare to finance or law.
While the above all sounds compelling, it remains hard to infer a specific TGE valuation from it (especially in the absence of any known venture round valuations). However, looking the gud tech and considering the rumoured Kraken and OKX listings, a range of $100M-$500M is definitely not unrealistic, and (at least on the lower bound of the range) likely even conservative.
If we assume that Mira raised a second yet to be announced Series A round after seed (which dates back over a year already), and a (not untypical) seed round allocation of 10% of supply, that would imply a $90M valuation.
The reason I'm wondering, is that the last venture round valuation will likely have a significant impact on the listing valuation on TGE day. If we assume the $90M estimate is not entirely off, and that there was a Series A round, the latter was likely raised at anywhere between $100M-$200M.
If there was no additional round, the above range is likely a decently realistic target for TGE day imo, otherwise we're likely looking at something slightly higher at $200M-$400M. Don't think we'll see anything beyond $500M upon TGE, but in crypto anything is possible.
While this is all purely speculative, it also has important implications for Mira yappers (like myself). So let's have a closer look:
- Total of 0.5% of MIRA supply allocated to yappers
- There is two campaign seasons (one might be post-TGE)
- The reward split and timeline of the seasons remains unclear
- It's key to understand that the value of yapper rewards depends on FDV
- $100M FDV ($500k yapper pool), $250M ($1.25M) and $500M ($2.5M)
- Details on distribution mechanics, snapshots and tokenomics pending
All in all I'm quite bullish here (both on the tech and from a yapper perspective). The above target FDV range would mean quite significant yapper rewards and is definitely achievable.
If Mira finds adoption at scale, we might even go higher and approach $1B FDV, which would retrospectively put the overall yapping rewards pool value at $5M.
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