Eclipse commemorative NFT: airdrop scenarios by FDV and supply share
Thread915 words
Models what an Eclipse airdrop to holders of its free 24h NFT mint could pay, assuming 5% of supply airdropped, 1% to 5% for NFT holders and $1B to $10B FDV. Floor case is about $250 per NFT versus a $50 market price.
Key claims
Bearish case is $50 per NFT at $1B FDV
$250 per NFT at $5B FDV and 1% of supply
Max bullish case is $2.6K per NFT at $10B FDV and 5%
This week, @EclipseFND opened a commemorative NFT mint on @Rarible for 24h on the day that the world witnessed a Solar Eclipse. 馃寬
Will this NFT be your ticket to a huge $ECLIPSE (what will be the ticker lol) airdrop?
A data-driven 馃У to find out what if... t.co/F8Hk6mlBDH
1/ Eclipse is a SVM rollup L2 built on Ethereum with @CelestiaOrg underneath that combines the speed of a parallel VM, the cost efficiency of Celestia's DA layer and the security of Ethereum.
This will basically be @solana but running on Ethereum.
2/ It's huge anon and I believe this will be one of the biggest launches of the year.
Eclipse has definitely resonated well within the VC world, which is evidenced by the absolutely stacked cap table of their recently announced $50M funding round.
x.com/EclipseFND/status/1767212277285969979
3/ Huge funding round announcements often drop a few months before a token launch.
If we see @EclipseFND launch in the next few months, there will surely also be an airdrop.
The question is, who will be eligible?
4/ Personally, I'm sure they will somehow include the @CelestiaOrg and @solana communities.
Could see some activity-based Ethereum/L2 user eligibility as well and maybe even @Cosmos due to IBC (Bad Kids?).
5/ However, while that all makes sense, I do strongly feel that the part where they include their own community is missing.
But the people that follow @EclipseFND every day and that bring the Discord and the Socials to life.
6/ How do you include these people in your airdrop?
A limited-time NFT mint.
@EclipseFND did a lot of marketing around the day of the Solar Eclipse. The community was expecting something that day (Eclipse even told ppl to keep 馃敂 on 1 day before mint).
x.com/EclipseFND/status/1777133052445241733
7/ @EclipseFND had to deliver something and with the NFT (that is literally called "anticipation of a future event") they did.
Sure, maybe this is just "for the culture" and not relevant in the airdrop context at all.
x.com/EclipseFND/status/1777382135034433647
8/ But if that's the case, why is the amount of NFTs per wallet limited?
It's a free mint and the collection has no overall mint limit.
Overall, there is a lot of hints that indicate that this NFT could come with an airdrop.
9/ Which is why you shouldn't underestimate the social pressure that arises from a community either.
Crypto is global. Minting the NFT(s) cost like 50$ in gas. In many places of the world that's a lot.
There could be backlash if there is 0 airdrop considering expectations.
10/ Oh and the NFT mint was also mentioned in the thread about mainnet opening up for devs soon.
Probably nothing.
x.com/EclipseFND/status/1777396226801246567
11/ Airdrops are about rewarding the community and early adopters, while also decentralizing the token holder structure.
The NFT mint gave @eclipseFND a pool of 190k NFTs across 50-100k unique wallets that they can reasonably include into their airdrop plans.
Convenient.
12/ What could the airdrop $$$ per NFT be?
Often, airdrops amount to 5-15% of supply.
Out of that portion of supply, a part could be dedicated to NFT holders.
Will it be 1% of supply? 2.5%? 5%? We don't know yet and that's why we have to come up with different scenarios here.
13/ Another important variable is the valuation @EclipseFND is able to achieve on the market.
My personal guess is that it lands somewhere in the Manta-Mantle range of $3B-$10B FDV but we will look at different scenarios.
14/ So let's have a look at what that means in terms of airdrop per NFT and wallet (if you minted the max of 5) at different FDVs and airdrop %.
15/ In the most bearish airdrop scenario, where @EclipseFND airdrops 5% of supply in total, out of which 1% is dedicated to NFT holders and Eclipse "only" reaches $1B FDV, the airdrop per NFT would be worth $50.
16/ This would leave all the minters at least breakeven.
However, it will likely be more. Even if there is only 1% of supply for NFT holders, a $5B FDV (def possible), the airdrop per NFT worth $250.
A wallet with 5 NFTs (max mint) would get 1'250$.
Very fair.
17/ So let's look at the max bullish case (a bit unlikely but anything can happen in crypto).
With 5% airdrop to NFT holders and a $10B FDV, a single NFT would get an airdrop worth $2.6K.
On a 5x NFT wallet, that would be over $13K.
18/ So will there be an airdrop and where will we land in terms of $$$?
I really don't know. There is not even a confirmation of any airdrop at this point.
But what really matters here, is the "floor" price in the case of an airdrop, which we calculated to be $250.
19/ You can currently buy the NFT on @Rarible for $50 (basically gas cost of minting).
If there is an airdrop incoming, you might make an easy 5x.
If there is no airdrop however, your NFT bags will go to 0.
20/ Now whether you want to take on this risk is up to you. How likely do you think an airdrop is here?
Personally, I think putting together 1-2 wallets with 5 NFTs to be prepared is a good strategy though.
I minted mine.
That's a wrap for today! I hope you've found this thread helpful! 馃
Make sure to follow me @zerokn0wledge_ to stay ahead on modularity and rollups!
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What came next 路 since 11 Apr 2024
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