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Celestia

145 pieces · Jun 2022 to Jun 2026 · 26 flagship

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L1/L2126 ZK38 Ethereum37 DeFi18 Solana12 Market structure10

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Celestia $TIA

Calls: 2 bullish2 bearish
Since first call, bullish: −94%
Since latest call, bearish: −65%
Now: $0.553

bullish thesis bearish thesis coverage, no call map, list or mentionWeekly closes in USD, log scale, as of 23 Oct 2026. Call figures turn cyan when the price moved the way the call pointed. Each marker links to its piece.

Start here · the strongest pieces on Celestia

Breakdown24 Jun 2025Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationDissects Celestia's token design: Series A at $0.0955 vs public launch at $2.29-$2.50, an 80/20 insider split, large unlocks, 8% inflation and a staking-reward loophole Polychain used to sell early. Contrasts it with HYPE's no-insider, buyback model.Data22 Mar 2024NEAR DA data analysis: Arbitrum would have saved $16.2M in 10 weeksData case for NEAR DA: rollups spent 9,000 to 16,000 ETH monthly on DA, EIP-4844 helps only partly and temporarily, and NEAR's sharded Nightshade design would have cost an Arbitrum-stack rollup $87.62 versus over $16M on Ethereum in 10 weeks.Breakdown12 Jun 2022Celestia deep dive: modular DA layer with data availability samplingMega thread explaining Celestia as a minimal chain that only orders transactions and guarantees data availability. Covers light nodes, fraud proofs, erasure coding with data availability sampling, execution separation and namespaced Merkle trees.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2026 4

23 Jun 2026What If You Stop Seeing The Forest Because Of All The Trees?Essay arguing crypto is not dead but ill: tokens are equity without rights, insiders extract via engineered tokenomics, OTC dumps and backroom MM deals, and gambling is the main consumer product. Calls for longer floats, honest unlocks and enforced vesting.ArticleMarket structureOther

27 Feb 2026Bullet: Solana perps via a purpose-built execution layerSolana did ~$451B in perps volume in 2025 versus Hyperliquid's ~$3T, because shared blockspace sets a latency floor. Bullet adds a native Rust runtime, FIFO sequencer, SP1 ZK proofs, Celestia DA and Solana settlement.BreakdownPerpsSolanaZK

12 Feb 2026Bullet mainnet: the onchain Nasdaq on SolanaExplains Bullet's network extension: a custom Rust runtime on the Sovereign SDK, Celestia DA, SP1 ZK proofs and Solana settlement, with maker-priority sequencing and dedicated blockspace. Mainnet rollout is gated by deposit caps.BreakdownPerpsSolanaZK

06 Jan 2026ZK-verifiable matching for private CLOBs, with Hibachi as exampleZK proofs let an operator match orders off-chain at low latency while proving rule-following. Hibachi posts encrypted state to Celestia and proves its CLOB with SP1, keeping positions private yet verifiable.ExplainerZKPerpsPrivacy

2025 12

12 Dec 2025Bullet: Hyperliquid-grade perp infrastructure as a Solana network extensionExplains Bullet's Rust-native, ZK-proven (SP1) trading network extension with Celestia DA, plus app-specific sequencing that prioritises maker orders and cancellations to cut adverse selection and tighten spreads.BreakdownPerpsSolanaZK

25 Oct 2025Bullet: Solana ZK perp DEX appchain built on the Sovereign SDKBullet is a ZK-powered Solana network extension with a Rust matching engine (BulletCore), single FIFO sequencer, Celestia DA and SP1 proofs verified on Solana. Adds borrowing/lending, wallet and gas abstraction, and a planned BulletSVM.BreakdownPerpsSolanaZK

24 Oct 2025RISE Chain: real-time EVM L2 with 10 gigagas throughputArgues RISE is under the CT radar versus MegaETH and Monad, having raised on Kaito at a $200M FDV. Lists its 10 gigagas throughput, continuous block building, shreds, PEVM on Reth and Celestia DA.ThesisL1/L2Ethereum

02 Oct 2025Bullet: Solana's onchain Nasdaq with 1ms latency, TL;DR of A1 articleTL;DR of A1's Bullet article: a Solana network extension with 1ms soft confirmations, Rust CLOB, maker-priority sequencing, 100x perps, integrated lending, and ZK proofs on Solana. Positioned as Solana's answer to Hyperliquid.BreakdownPerpsSolanaZK

25 Sep 2025Bullet breakdown: Solana's trading layer and the perps paradoxBreaks down Bullet, an application-specific rollup using Solana for settlement with a Rust matching engine at about 1.2ms latency, cancel prioritization and ZK-verified sequencing. Covers cross-margin across spot, perps and lending and compares it with Hyperliquid and Solana DEXs.BreakdownPerpsSolanaHyperliquid

26 Jul 2025Projects integrating Boundless ZK proving: MegaETH, Citrea, Celestia, WormholeLists projects building on Boundless' proving market infra, including MegaETH, Citrea, Celestia, Wormhole, EigenCloud, Linea, Union, Anoma, Miden, Fuel and Unichain.MapZKL1/L2

11 Jul 2025Why RWA tokenization hasn't scaled yet and what is unblocking itRWAs are held back by missing high-performance DeFi infra, weak oracle infra and regulatory ambiguity. All three are improving through verifiable CLOBs, modular oracles like eOracle, the Genius Act and treasury adoption, with stablecoins already the largest onchain RWA class.ThesisRWADeFiMarket structure

06 Jul 2025Celestia 'Proof of Governance' proposal: 20x lower inflation and no stakingSummarizes a proposal to cut TIA inflation from ~5% to ~0.25%, eliminate staking with governance electing validators, and burn fees and MEV, making TIA its own LST. Argues PoS security is largely delegated and Celestia overpays for security by about 20x.BreakdownL1/L2Market structure

06 Jul 2025CLOB wars: why onchain orderbooks are replacing AMMs and who builds themAMMs were a forced tradeoff until real-time chains, scalable DA, ZK proving and fast oracles made orderbooks viable. Maps CLOB appchains (Hyperliquid, Bullet, Lighter, Paradex, Hibachi) and onchain CLOBs (GTE, Nitro, Monaco, Fuel, Aptos).MapPerpsDeFiHyperliquid

24 Jun 2025Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationDissects Celestia's token design: Series A at $0.0955 vs public launch at $2.29-$2.50, an 80/20 insider split, large unlocks, 8% inflation and a staking-reward loophole Polychain used to sell early. Contrasts it with HYPE's no-insider, buyback model.BreakdownMarket structureL1/L2

04 Jun 2025Why Caldera matters: app-specific rollups over general-purpose chainsArgues most apps will not stay sustainable on general-purpose chains and that HyperCore succeeds because it is application-specific. Caldera makes running an L2 appchain a few clicks, giving control of stack, UX, fee revenue and blockspace while inheriting Ethereum security.ThesisL1/L2Hyperliquid

06 May 2025Caldera RaaS explained: stack-agnostic rollups, DA options and MetalayerExplains Caldera as a stack-agnostic RaaS supporting OP Stack, Arbitrum Nitro and ZK Stack, with a choice of settlement and DA layers, integrated tooling and the Hyperlane-powered Metalayer making its chains composable.ExplainerL1/L2

2024 73

11 Oct 2024Initia mainnet and what it means for Celestia's ecosystemArgues Initia mainnet matters for Celestia because Celestia has no L1 execution, so Initia enables an ecosystem of app and vertical-specific execution layers native to it. TIA would fuel that economy.ThesisL1/L2

04 Oct 2024Celestia vs EigenDA: different missions, not direct competitorsArgues Celestia is an L1 building a native rollup ecosystem while EigenDA is an off-chain DA service for Ethereum rollups. They overlap only in serving DA to Ethereum-settling rollups, which is EigenDA's sole focus.ThesisL1/L2

28 Sep 2024Celestia ecosystem Q4 2024: rollups and infra launching mainnets and tokensLists the Celestia-based rollups, frameworks and interop projects set for Q4 mainnet and token launches. Argues this turns Celestia, which has no smart contracts, into a cohesive app ecosystem and adds utility for TIA as its backbone asset.MapL1/L2

26 Sep 2024Eclipse mainnet preview: SVM rollup on Ethereum with Celestia DABreaks down Eclipse as a modular SVM rollup combining Solana's parallel execution, Ethereum-based state validation and Celestia's cheap DA. Cites a $65M raise and a 38% share of all data posted to Celestia before mainnet.BreakdownL1/L2SolanaEthereum

26 Sep 2024Initia: interwoven rollups ecosystem ahead of October mainnetTL;DR of Initia: a MoveVM-based Cosmos L1 acting as a liquidity and interoperability layer for IBC-enabled optimistic rollups (Minitias) built on the OPinit stack with Celestia DA. Positions it as a leading framework for Celestia-based execution layers.BreakdownL1/L2

19 Sep 2024Union: ZK-powered IBC interop and the Wandering Whale Sharks NFT airdrop caseArgues Union, a ZK-powered interop layer scaling IBC beyond Cosmos, will be a major player and that the official NFT collection likely gets a UNO airdrop. Benchmarks against interop FDVs and notes Berachain and Movement partnerships.ThesisZKL1/L2

16 Sep 2024Spicenet: Solana network extension for fast perps trading on CelestiaBreaks down Spicenet, an optimistic sovereign rollup on Celestia built with the Sovereign SDK. It hosts Pepper DEX, a perps and futures venue using a modified Dexterity protocol, and uses RISC Zero ZK proofs and a Solana bridge.BreakdownSolanaPerpsL1/L2

16 Sep 2024AI projects to watch this cycle: GPU, data, inference and agent landscapeCategorized list of AI and DePIN protocols across GPU networks, data storage, data infra, identity, verifiable compute, inference networks, agent infra, frameworks and AI apps. Author expects AI and DePIN tokens could rise 10x or more.MapAIDePIN

15 Sep 2024TIA short funding and the October unlock: why shorts may get squeezedArgues crowded TIA shorts paying extreme funding ahead of the late-October unlock will face less sell pressure than expected, and a squeeze could revive interest as ecosystem projects launch.Market takeMarket structureL1/L2

15 Sep 2024Celestia data availability sampling and light nodes in the Celenium explorerExplains how Celestia's DAS lets low-spec light nodes sample erasure coded blobs to get probabilistic availability guarantees, with securely sampled blob size growing with light node count. Celenium v1.18 embeds a browser light node, with wallets as the next step.ExplainerL1/L2

14 Sep 2024EigenDA throughput: 7.84 MB/s used of 15 MB/s capacityNotes EigenDA runs at 7.84 MB/s, 52% of its 15 MB/s max, while posting data from more than 15 chains including Celestia itself.DataEthereumL1/L2

13 Sep 2024DA scaling and L1 blockspace value: response to Ryan WatkinsResponds to three points on L1 blockspace: DA supply can be scaled as demand grows, network effects in DA are softer than in shared-state blockspace, and value capture will shift to apps via gas redistribution and MEV sharing.ThesisL1/L2Market structure

13 Sep 2024Is data availability a commodity and do DA layers have network effectsArgues DA is not a pure commodity because integrators differ on DAS and crypto-economic security needs. Network effects exist as soft mindshare and, with coordination layers, harder interconnection effects.ThesisL1/L2Market structure

10 Sep 2024Celestia roadmap vs the end-of-October TIA unlockQuestions whether Celestia's roadmap is enough to offset the end-of-October TIA unlock, which he says adds roughly 80% of current circulating supply. Unsure about TIA price action versus majors and new token launches.Market takeL1/L2

09 Sep 2024Celestia blob data: Eclipse is 32.6% of posted dataEclipse accounts for 32.6% of blob data posted to Celestia and added 7GB in one week, ahead of LightLink, Orderly, Manta and Derive. Lists the top ten Celestia-based rollups as a sign of growth ahead of modular season.DataL1/L2

02 Sep 2024Celestia rollup leaderboard: Eclipse leads with 17.5GB in a monthEclipse posted 17.5GB to Celestia in its first month, topping the rollup leaderboard ahead of Orderly, LightLink, Manta and Derive.DataL1/L2

23 Aug 2024Sunrise Layer: Celestia-compatible DA layer and NFT-holder airdrop rolesDescribes Sunrise as an L1 DA layer extending Berachain-style Proof of Liquidity to rollups, compatible with Celestia tooling and IBC, with a Gluon yield hub. Explains how NFT holders claim Discord roles ahead of a possible TGE.BreakdownL1/L2

13 Aug 2024Celestine Sloths as an airdrop play versus staking TIALists potential airdrops for the 2,500 Celestine Sloths. Argues that with 420k+ TIA stakers averaging 1.4k TIA, holding the NFT is a better airdrop play than staking TIA.Market takeL1/L2

12 Aug 2024Celestia Lemongrass upgrade: 1-click TIA and Blobstream ZeroLemongrass enables 1-click native TIA on interwoven rollups and adds interchain accounts. CIP-20 deprecates the old Blobstream module in favor of zk light clients such as RISC Zero's Blobstream Zero.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

11 Aug 2024AVAIL undervalued versus TIA: DA design, valuation and unlock timingArgues AVAIL at $1.4B FDV is undervalued mid-term versus TIA at roughly 5x its valuation. Cites Avail's ZK-validity design, the Nexus and Fusion roadmap, and TIA's Nov 2 cliff versus a year without AVAIL investor unlocks.ThesisL1/L2

10 Aug 2024Celestia TIA Nov 2 unlock: cliff and linear vesting breakdownA cliff unlock on Nov 2 adds over 85% of current market cap (about $1B) to circulation: Series A and B 65.01M, Seed 52.47M and core contributors 58.08M TIA. Daily linear vesting then releases millions of dollars per day.DataL1/L2

09 Aug 2024TIA staking stats: 72% of circulating supply staked, 420k delegators72% of circulating TIA is staked by 420k delegators across 550k+ delegations, averaging 1.4k TIA ($8k), per SmartStake. He expects staking-based airdrops to be heavily diluted and prefers Sloth NFTs and light nodes.DataL1/L2

08 Aug 2024Hyperlane HYPE airdrop: protocol breakdown and value estimatesExplains Hyperlane as a permissionless interop layer and estimates the speculative HYPE airdrop. At a $500M FDV with 10-15% airdropped, he sizes it at $50M-$75M, about $625-$875 per early user wallet and $1000-$2000 per Celestine Sloth.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

01 Aug 2024Astria explained: shared sequencing for based rollups on CelestiaExplains based rollups and why Astria built its own L1 with 2 second blocks and single-slot finality to sequence many rollups without pre-confirmations. Data goes to Celestia and Forma is the first rollup.ExplainerL1/L2

28 Jul 2024Lumoz explained: ZK proving and verification DePIN with RaaSExplains verifiable computation and Lumoz's combined rollup-as-a-service and ZK proof network, with zkProver and zkVerifier nodes secured via EigenLayer restaking. Frames the capped node licenses as the opportunity.ExplainerZKDePINAI

25 Jul 2024Modular apps landscape: live applications on rollups and L3sList of about 25 real applications built on modular infrastructure, grouped by stack (OP stack with Celestia, Starknet, zkSync ZK stack, Arbitrum Orbit, Initia), heavy on perp DEXs, gaming and NFT chains.MapL1/L2PerpsDeFi

22 Jul 2024Eclipse stack: SVM execution, RISC Zero proving, Celestia DABreaks Eclipse into its modular components: SVM execution, RISC Zero zkVM proving, Ethereum settlement and Celestia for data publication, delivering parallel SVM execution on Ethereum.BreakdownL1/L2SolanaZK

20 Jul 2024ZK-powered Blobstream TL;DR: Celestia DA for Ethereum L2sTL;DR of his report: Blobstream relays Celestia data roots to Ethereum so L2s get cheap DA, with ZK implementations Blobstream X (Succinct) and Blobstream Zero (RISC Zero) reducing overhead.ExplainerZKL1/L2

20 Jul 2024Next-Gen DA for Ethereum L2s: ZK-Powered BlobstreamExplains how Blobstream attests Celestia data to Ethereum L2s versus data availability committees, and how ZK versions from Succinct and RISC Zero cut overhead. Blobspace starts at 8MB per block, roughly 9,000 to 30,000 ERC-20 TPS.ArticleZKL1/L2Ethereum

19 Jul 2024AVAIL launch valuation scenarios: $3B-$5B FDV and airdrop dynamicsExpects AVAIL to land at $3B-$5B FDV ($0.3-$0.5 on 10B supply), using TIA at over $6B FDV as the peer. 354,605 wallets share 600M AVAIL; sees a possible dip to $2B-$3B FDV before a run if the staking-airdrop narrative plays out.Market takeL1/L2DeFi

18 Jul 2024Union thesis: ZK consensus proofs for trust-minimized IBC interopArgues Union is the first fully trust-minimized interop solution, using ZK consensus proofs and the CometBLS variant to extend IBC to Ethereum and L2s via Groth16 verification. Cites 100k unique testnet users in two weeks.ThesisL1/L2ZK

17 Jul 2024Movement ecosystem thread: M1, M2, SDK and Battle of OlympusOverview of Movement's stack (M1 Avalanche subnet, M2 SuiMove ZK rollup with EVM composability, SDK) and an ecosystem of over 200 teams, mapped by category. Covers the $38M Series A led by Polychain and the Battle of Olympus program ending Sept 17.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

17 Jul 2024Drop: Lido-backed cross-chain liquid staking on NeutronExplains Drop, a liquid staking protocol on Neutron using IBC Interchain Transactions and Queries to manage remote delegations, plus its Lido Alliance ties around wstETH. Argues it can unlock liquidity for ATOM and TIA.ExplainerDeFi

02 Jul 2024Particle Network deep dive: universal accounts, liquidity and gasThread on account-level chain abstraction: Particle's L1 provides Universal Accounts, Liquidity and Gas across chains. Testnet phase 1 hit 600K+ accounts and 13M+ txs in under a week, with 56 chains integrated and $25M raised.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

17 Jun 2024Ankr x Espresso: RaaS plus shared sequencing as a billion dollar narrativeArgues RaaS is the final abstraction layer over rollup SDKs and that Ankr's RPC track record plus Espresso shared sequencing integration positions it well. Lists the benefits of shared sequencers: liveness, censorship resistance, security, fast finality and atomic cross-chain composability.ThesisL1/L2Tooling

05 Jun 2024Fluentbase and rWasm: Ankr RaaS as a path to onboard the next million devsExplains Fluent's blended execution and Fluentbase, an SDK and proving system built on rWasm, a ZK-optimized reduced WebAssembly VM. Argues Ankr RaaS plus Wasm lets devs launch app-specific rollups in Rust, Solidity or Vyper, with other Wasm languages to follow.ExplainerL1/L2Tooling

26 May 2024RISC Zero: Zeth for the OP Stack and Steel ZK coprocessorCovers RISC Zero's Zeth, a Type-1 zkEVM that can provably build Ethereum and now Optimism blocks, and Steel, a view call proof library that gives the ZK coprocessor access to Ethereum state without writing circuits. Notes the trusted setup concluded on the road to zkVM 1.0.ExplainerZKL1/L2

24 May 2024Covalent and long-term data availability: the Ethereum Wayback MachineExplains the modular stack and why EIP-4844 blobs, pruned after 18 days, leave a long-term data availability gap that Covalent's Ethereum Wayback Machine fills with Block Specimens. Argues Covalent at a $0.2B FDV is undervalued relative to short-term DA peers worth billions.ThesisL1/L2AI

18 May 2024Why Ankr RaaS can win the app-chain summerArgues Rollup-as-a-Service is the catalyst for app-chains and Ankr will gain share because it already runs a global node and RPC network, unlike nascent competitors. Lists supported stacks (OP Stack, Orbit, ZK Stack, Fluentbase, Polygon CDK) and DA and interop integrations.ThesisL1/L2DePIN

18 May 2024Sovereign rollups vs smart contract rollups on CelestiaExplains that sovereign rollups handle execution and settlement via app light clients while the DA layer only orders and stores data, unlike smart contract rollups that settle on Ethereum. Weighs bridge, security and upgrade trade-offs and expects early NFT, gaming and meme chains.ExplainerL1/L2

17 May 2024Movement M2 ecosystem: MoveVM/EVM composability and Universal Token StandardOverview of Movement M2, a MoveVM rollup on Ethereum with Celestia DA, covering EVM and Move composability, IBC support unifying Cosmos, EVM and Move liquidity, and the Universal Token Standard that unifies EVM and MoveVM tokens without bridges.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

09 May 2024Narrative speculation comes in waves: why a second TIA wave is likelyArgues narrative speculation has a first hype wave and a larger second wave driven by technical innovation, using TIA as the example after it halved from its $20 pump. Expects a second wave as the Celestia ecosystem matures and modular airdrops land.Market takeL1/L2Market structure

09 May 2024Lava Network raises $11M: the RPC data access layer of the modular stackNotes the Lava Foundation's $11M strategic round on top of a $15M seed and argues the data access layer, where rollups create incentive pools to attract RPC nodes, could be worth billions.Market takeL1/L2Tooling

08 May 2024Lava Network: decentralized RPC as the data access layer for rollupsArgues new rollups lack reliable RPC infrastructure, which Lava solves via incentivized public RPC pools. Covers usage stats, funding and LAVA tokenomics with 1B fixed supply, restaking and deflationary mechanics.ThesisL1/L2Tooling

06 May 2024Vistara: decentralized hypervisor and hardware layer for DePIN and AIExplains Vistara's pivot from RaaS to a decentralized hypervisor network offering programmable CPU, GPU, RAM and storage, with components Hypercore, Unikernel, MicroVM, Spacecores, Hardware as Code and Vimana. Discloses being an angel investor in the pre-seed.BreakdownDePINAI

03 May 2024EigenLayer AVS restaked ETH vs top 15 chains by staking market capCompares restaked ETH securing live EigenLayer AVS protocols (EigenDA 2.77M ETH, about $8.23B) with staking market caps of the top 15 chains. Several AVS already carry more crypto-economic stake than whole L1s, such as EigenDA above Celestia and Aptos.DataEthereumDeFi

02 May 2024Movement Labs ecosystem update: modular MoveVM after $38M Series AArgues Move's formal verification and a parallel MoveVM make Movement's M2 rollup (Ethereum settlement, Celestia DA) a key modular play after its $38M Series A. Notes new ecosystem additions such as WarpGate and Nightly and Binance's participation.Market takeL1/L2

26 Apr 2024Movement Labs thesis: modular MoveVM rollups sharing a sequencerReacts to Movement's $38M round by arguing that a parallel EVM-compatible MoveVM rollup (M2) on Ethereum with Celestia DA is big, and an SDK for many MoveVM rollups sharing the M1 sequencer is bigger.ThesisL1/L2

21 Apr 2024Avail beyond DA: Nexus, Fusion and a $5B-$10B FDV callWalks through Avail's three stages: validity-proof DA with light-client sampling, Nexus proof aggregation and shared sequencing, and Fusion multi-asset security. Expects AVAIL to trade at $5B-$10B FDV quickly, using TIA as the comparable.ThesisL1/L2

20 Apr 2024Union x Polygon AggLayer: connecting IBC chains to aggregated ZK securityExplains Union's integration with Polygon's AggLayer, which aggregates ZK proofs for near-instant atomic cross-chain transactions. Union brings IBC chains and Celestia rollups in using CometBLS consensus with BLS signatures and a decentralized proving market.BreakdownZKL1/L2

11 Apr 2024Eclipse commemorative NFT: airdrop scenarios by FDV and supply shareModels what an Eclipse airdrop to holders of its free 24h NFT mint could pay, assuming 5% of supply airdropped, 1% to 5% for NFT holders and $1B to $10B FDV. Floor case is about $250 per NFT versus a $50 market price.DataSolanaL1/L2

10 Apr 2024Movement M2: Dappad expands via the Fractal EVM-to-Move interpreterExplains how Dappad's multichain launchpad expands to Movement's M2 without rewriting code via Fractal, and how native Sui-Move and Aptos-Move compatibility lets M2 source builders from the whole Move and EVM universe.BreakdownL1/L2

08 Apr 2024Union: ZK light client interop vs multisig bridges with ZK labelsArgues many bridges labelled ZK that prove a multisig attestation keep the same trust assumptions. Details Union's design: BLS aggregated CometBLS consensus, Groth16 proofs by a permissionless prover, light client verification, and a planned aggregation layer.ExplainerZKL1/L2

04 Apr 2024Movement Labs deep dive: M1 sequencer, M2 Move rollup and FractalExplains Movement's architecture: M1 shared sequencer on Snowman consensus, M2 Move ZK rollup on Ethereum with Celestia DA, Block-STM parallel execution and a staged finality model. Claims 145k+ TPS and Move-EVM composability with native IBC.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

01 Apr 2024Shared sequencing thesis: Sei and Fantom pivot away from monolithic L1sArgues Sei and Fantom (post-Sonic) are quietly becoming shared sequencers for rollups. Explains why centralized sequencers are risky and how shared sequencing gives censorship resistance, MEV mitigation and atomic composability across rollups.ThesisL1/L2

31 Mar 2024Alt-VMs will overtake EVM execution: parallel VMs on modular L2sArgues EVM dominance (96% of DeFi TVL per DefiLlama, 20+ chains) is limited by sequential execution, and modular DA makes parallel alt-VMs such as SVM, MoveVM and WASM viable as Ethereum-settled L2s. Predicts 2024 as the year of alt-VMs.ThesisL1/L2

29 Mar 2024Echelon on Movement M2: Move money market with EVM and Cosmos liquidityDescribes Movement's M2 as a modular ZK Move-EVM L2 on Celestia and Echelon, an Aptos money market with efficiency mode for high-LTV correlated pairs, launching on M2 unchanged to reach EVM and IBC liquidity.BreakdownDeFiL1/L2

26 Mar 2024Ankr and Neura: AI chain with GPU network, IMOs and BTC restaking securityBreaks down Neura, a Cosmos SDK EVM chain acting as a coordination layer for Ankr's distributed GPU network, with Initial Model Offerings for fractional AI model ownership and security from Babylon-staked BTC. Argues ANKR at about $500M FDV is undervalued versus billion-dollar peers.BreakdownAIDePIN

22 Mar 2024NEAR DA data analysis: Arbitrum would have saved $16.2M in 10 weeksData case for NEAR DA: rollups spent 9,000 to 16,000 ETH monthly on DA, EIP-4844 helps only partly and temporarily, and NEAR's sharded Nightshade design would have cost an Arbitrum-stack rollup $87.62 versus over $16M on Ethereum in 10 weeks.DataL1/L2Ethereum

22 Mar 2024Movement Labs and Thala: Move-based modular L2s for EVM liquidityExplains Move's origin at Meta's Diem and Movement's stack: M1 as an Avalanche subnet shared sequencer and M2 as a Celestia-based Move/EVM L2. Thala, with over $200M TVL, is deploying on M2 for EVM user access.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

22 Mar 2024Sei Parallel Stack: pivot from alt-L1 to shared sequencer for parallel rollupsArgues Sei has pivoted from the alt-L1 narrative toward acting as a shared sequencer for parallel EVM rollups that settle on Ethereum and use modular DA like Celestia or Avail, under the name Parallel Stack.Market takeL1/L2

18 Mar 2024Shared sequencers: why rollups need them and who leads the fieldExplains the sequencer role and the risks of today's centralized sequencers (single point of failure, censorship, liveness, MEV). Argues shared sequencers deliver decentralization-as-a-service, pooled security and composability for the long tail of app-specific rollups.ExplainerL1/L2

17 Mar 2024EigenLayer explained: restaking, AVSes and the trust it generalizesExplains EigenLayer as contracts letting stakers opt into extra slashing to secure AVS middleware, reusing the Ethereum validator set. Notes AVSes still must incentivize validators to opt in, as EigenDA must.ExplainerEthereumDeFi

15 Mar 2024Modular ecosystem map: execution, DA, sequencing, proving, interop and RaaSPrimer on monolithic versus modular design followed by a landscape of projects per layer: rollups, settlement, DA, sequencing, proving, interoperability, rollup SDKs, RaaS, orderflow abstraction and RPC.MapL1/L2Ethereum

13 Mar 2024NEAR Protocol modular bull case: DA cost, fast finality and chain abstractionLong-form case for NEAR in the modular stack. Cites Dune data for a 10-day Arbitrum-stack DA cost of $16.2M on Ethereum, $2,840 on Celestia and $87.62 on NEAR, plus an EigenLayer fast finality layer and chain abstraction.ThesisL1/L2Ethereum

29 Feb 2024Union: ZK light-client interoperability with BLS aggregated consensus proofsExplains why signature verification makes native IBC infeasible on EVM chains and how Union aggregates headers on a CometBLS chain, using BLS aggregation and Galois ZK consensus proofs so connected chains verify state trustlessly.ExplainerZKL1/L2

04 Feb 2024Dymension: RollApps and a shared settlement hub ahead of the DYM listingExplains Dymension's RollApp Development Kit and IBC-connected settlement Hub with an embedded AMM, and argues the airdrop-to-staker narrative will mirror Celestia. Cites Aevo pre-market at a $3.9B FDV.BreakdownL1/L2

01 Feb 2024Lava Network: chain-agnostic RPC and data access for the modular stackPresents Lava as a permissionless network of node operators serving RPC and APIs for any chain, routing relays by performance. Testnet Phase 1 reportedly reached 300+ operators and 2bn+ relays on 30+ chains; notes a possible airdrop.BreakdownToolingL1/L2

17 Jan 2024Rollup-as-a-Service explained and why AltLayer is the first big EigenLayer playExplains the modular stack and how RaaS providers cut rollup deployment to a no-code 10-minute process, then argues AltLayer is the leading RaaS and first major EigenLayer play ahead of its ALT token launch.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

15 Jan 2024Manta Pacific launch guide: architecture, metrics, ecosystem and tokenomicsMega-thread before the MANTA token launch: OP stack plus Celestia architecture with a DA cost cut above 99%, $946M total value bridged, $407M DeFi TVL, leading apps, a Polygon CDK zkEVM roadmap and 1B supply tokenomics.BreakdownL1/L2ZKDeFi

04 Jan 2024Modular thesis reading list: Celestia, EigenLayer and rollups 2022 to 2024Chronological index of the author's modular research since June 2022: Celestia and data availability sampling, EigenDA versus Celestia, sovereign rollups, RaaS, shared sequencing, plus two Castle Capital reports on modularity.OtherL1/L2Ethereum

03 Jan 2024Manta Pacific as a bull-run epicentre and the launch of Manta ModularistArgues Manta's modular L2 on Celestia will be a leading ecosystem this cycle: 3rd largest L2 with over $700M TVL, a planned zkEVM move on Polygon CDK and $60M raised. Announces a Manta-focused research and media hub.ThesisL1/L2

03 Jan 2024Manta Pacific metrics: $560M bridged, 4th largest rollup by TVLReports Manta Pacific total value bridged above $560M (+113% in 7 days) and $330M TVL in its DeFi ecosystem. About 59% of bridged value is in active use, which makes it the 4th largest rollup by TVL.DataL1/L2

2023 45

29 Dec 2023EthDA by Crust: danksharding-style DA rollup with permanent blob storageProfiles EthDA, an Ethereum L2 supporting EIP-4844 blobs, DAS across sequencer subnets, a permissionless sequencer set and permanent blob storage (Blobweave), pitched as undervalued against Celestia's USD 12B FDV.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

21 Dec 2023Modular thesis and DA layers: Celestia vs Avail with DAS and ZK proofsRecaps the modular thesis and argues DA layers must cut fees for rollups to compete with Solana. Compares Celestia's fraud proof DAS with Avail's KZG validity proofs and expects Celestia to adopt ZK.ThesisL1/L2Ethereum

19 Dec 2023Manta Pacific after Celestia DA: 99.98% lower DA fees, $96.7M bridgedData thread: Celestia DA cut Manta's DA fees by 99.98% versus Ethereum L1, and the New Paradigm bridge took $96.7M from about 8,400 depositors in four days versus Blast's over $800M. Estimates $25-50M of MANTA farming rewards. Includes referral invite codes.DataL1/L2Ethereum

15 Dec 2023Manta New Paradigm: native yield L2 campaign with STONE and wUSDMDescribes Manta's New Paradigm campaign for yield-bearing ETH and stablecoins composable on Manta Pacific via StakeStone and Mountain USDM, with phases, a 69-day withdrawal lock and the Blast comparison.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

14 Dec 2023Arbitrum Orbit as a candidate for Celo's L2: fit against requirementsEvaluates Arbitrum Orbit for Celo's L2 move: decentralized sequencing, EigenDA and Celestia options, 1-block finality, trustless bridging, live permissioned fraud proofs (Stage 1), BOLD and Stylus.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

06 Dec 2023Manta Pacific integrates Celestia DA ahead of mainnet betaExplains Manta Pacific's move from posting data to Ethereum to Celestia with Blobstream attestations, which separates execution, settlement and DA, cuts fees and precedes the Polygon CDK zkEVM transition.BreakdownL1/L2ZK

12 Nov 2023Manta Pacific October update: TVL growth, Manta Fest and November integrationsUpdate on Manta Pacific: TVL grew from USD 2.6M to USD 12.7M in October (338% MoM) and passed USD 24.5M, with Manta Fest, the zkEVM roadmap and new integrations such as TIA via Hyperlane Nexus.DataL1/L2DeFi

10 Nov 2023Narratives vs catalysts: how to identify and play crypto narrativesFramework for narratives (technology, use case, event or externally driven) versus shorter-lived catalysts, with EIP-4844, Arbitrum STIP, EigenLayer and Celestia as examples. Argues an investment thesis should be built on narratives and exited when catalysts run out.ExplainerMarket structure

10 Nov 2023Manta Pacific passes $24M total value bridged during MantaFestNotes Manta Pacific total value bridged exceeded USD 24M, with a Celestia DA integration expected to make it one of the cheapest L2s and a planned move to a Polygon CDK based zkEVM. Promotes MantaFest points and NFTs.DataL1/L2ZK

02 Nov 2023Celestium design: Starknet L3 with Celestia DA, cost components and trade-offsExplores an L3 rollup on Starknet with DA on Celestia. Settlement on Starknet cuts proof verification costs, while main costs are verification, Celestia DA and bridging attestations. Suits gaming and perps but lacks a native bridge.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

22 Oct 2023OP Stack breakdown: Bedrock, centralized sequencer risk and EVM-equivalent OVMTechnical thread from the Redacted OP report: the OP Stack's layered design, optimistic fraud-proof assumptions, and the fact that OP Mainnet then had no deployed state validation and a centralized sequencer without slashing. Notes Manta as a customization example.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

17 Oct 2023Manta Pacific's move to a Polygon CDK zkEVM: roadmap and rationaleExplains Manta Pacific's four-chapter roadmap from an OP Stack rollup to a Polygon CDK zkEVM with Celestia DA, why validity proofs beat optimistic ones on finality and interop, and how CDK proof aggregation shares verification cost.BreakdownZKL1/L2Privacy

05 Oct 2023Manta Pacific TVL up 1,173% in a week during MantaFestNotes Manta Pacific TVL rose 1,173% over seven days during the incentive campaign, with a Celestia integration expected to cut fees.DataL1/L2ZK

02 Oct 2023Vistara: one-click app-specific and sovereign rollups with modular componentsBreaks down Vistara's rollup-as-a-service where builders pick execution, sequencer, DA, interop and proving from a UI. Initially sovereign optimistic rollups on Celestia with Dymension settlement, with ZK via SHARP or Bonsai planned.BreakdownL1/L2

22 Sep 2023Manta Pacific ecosystem visual: OP Stack, Celestia DA and zk circuitsShort post with an ecosystem visual describing Manta as an OP-Stack modular rollup using Celestia for cheap data availability and a customized EVM supporting universal zk circuits for Solidity zkApps.MapZKL1/L2

15 Sep 2023Erasure coding explained: Reed-Solomon codes and polynomial interpolationExplains erasure coding as redundancy that lets original data be rebuilt from any k of n pieces, using Reed-Solomon codes where a degree k-1 polynomial is determined by any k points.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

13 Sep 2023How data availability sampling works: erasure coding and light node samplingWalks through DAS: light nodes sample random chunks of erasure coded blocks, with Celestia's 2D Reed-Solomon 1/4 rate expanding 1MB to 4MB. Contrasts Celestia fraud proofs with Avail validity proofs.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

12 Sep 2023Data availability sampling as the fix for the rollup DA bottleneckArgues data availability is the main rollup scaling bottleneck and that DAS light nodes can scale block space without raising validator requirements. Previews the contents of his DA research report.ExplainerEthereumL1/L2

04 Sep 2023AltLayer deep dive: rollup-as-a-service, flash layers and tiered finalityBreaks down AltLayer's no-code RaaS framework, its disposable Flash Layers, implemented fraud proofs open to any participant, a staked Beacon Layer sequencer network and three-tier finality (execution, verification, rollup level).BreakdownL1/L2

30 Aug 2023Modular stack part 1: execution layers and virtual machinesExplains monolithic versus modular design (execution, settlement, DA, consensus) and walks through the EVM and the three routes to a zkEVM: prove the EVM trace directly, map EVM opcodes to a custom VM, or transpile Solidity to a custom VM.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

18 Aug 2023Is Metis still an L2 play for the next cycle?Argues Metis has strong tech innovation and low valuation, but off-chain data via Memolabs, an unfinished fraud-proof system, no escape hatch and a stagnating DeFi ecosystem leave it behind other L2s. Concludes it is not currently a top L2 pick.ThesisL1/L2

17 Aug 2023Eclipse explained: modular SVM rollups and the projects building on itExplains Eclipse as a customizable modular rollup platform (SVM first) with L3 app-chains settling on an Eclipse L2, then surveys early builders including Nautilus, Injective Cascade and a Polygon SVM rollup. Details Cascade's two interchain security constructions.BreakdownL1/L2Solana

11 Aug 2023Vistara: one-click modular rollup deployment frameworkBreakdown of Vistara, a framework to deploy customizable rollups in under a minute by picking execution, sequencer, DA, interop and prover from a menu. Covers supported components, blueprints and the Vimana node architecture.BreakdownL1/L2Tooling

20 Jul 2023Hyperlane Cosmos module: permissionless interoperability beyond IBCExplains Hyperlane's Cosmos SDK module built with Strangelove, which connects Cosmos chains to non-IBC chains. Argues permissioned interop will not scale across modular chains and cites Noble as a key integration.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

13 Jul 20232023 crypto narratives: LSDfi, zkEVMs, DA, app-specific rollups, privacy, RWALists the narratives he is positioned in: LSDfi, zkEVMs, recursive L3 scaling, hyperscalable DA, app-specific rollups, privacy, interoperability, parallel VMs, WASM/RISC-V VMs, RWA (pending regulatory clarity) and perp DEXes.ThesisL1/L2PrivacyDeFi

11 Jul 2023Manta Pacific launch: OP Stack rollup with Celestia DA and universal ZK circuitsBreaks down Manta Pacific, a modular OP Stack rollup using Celestia DA to cut rollup cost and universal circuits 2.0 so Solidity developers can build ZK apps, plus the existing Manta user base.BreakdownPrivacyL1/L2ZK

11 Jul 2023App-specific L3s on zkEVM L2s and why zk is the endgameThesis that high throughput apps need app-specific L3s with parallelized VMs like Sealevel or Move, verifying plonky3 proofs on a cheap zkEVM L2. Argues optimistic rollups' edge fades as DA cost dominates proving cost and proof systems mature.ThesisL1/L2ZK

07 Jul 2023Sovereign rollups vs smart contract rollups: where verification livesContrasts smart contract rollups, which settle on and are verified by a settlement layer, with sovereign rollups that publish to a DA layer but verify themselves, upgrade through forks and lack a settlement bridge.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

03 Jul 2023Trust-minimized bridging: proof-based vs committee-based and DA layersCompares proof-based and committee-based bridges on trust minimization and generalizability. Argues proof-based bridges still trust connected chain consensus and that shared DA layers with light clients could enable true trust minimization.ThesisL1/L2Market structure

26 Jun 2023zkSync ZK Stack explained: hyperchains, L3 recursion and hyperbridgesExplains the ZK Stack framework for building ZK-powered L2 and L3 hyperchains. Covers recursive proofs, cheap L2-L3 interoperability, choice of DA layer and when a dedicated hyperchain makes sense versus deploying on zkSync Era.ExplainerZKL1/L2

01 Jun 2023Why PoS DA layers beat data availability committeesArgues PoS-based DA layers like Celestia and Avail beat DACs on trustlessness, since nodes stake and can be slashed for not serving data, and on fault tolerance, since larger participant sets make data withholding attacks harder.ExplainerL1/L2

29 May 2023EigenDA vs Celestia and Avail: how restaked DA differs from DA L1sCompares EigenDA, which has no consensus or P2P network and uses restaked ETH, KZG commitments and Proof of Custody, with Celestia and Avail, which are DA L1s using Tendermint consensus and data availability sampling.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

26 May 2023Data availability sampling and light clients: erasure coding explainedDetailed explainer of how DA layers break the link between throughput and verification cost: full versus light nodes, fraud proofs, erasure coding and the data availability sampling process, with Celestia's 2D Reed-Solomon scheme as the example.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

24 May 2023Data availability sampling: how light nodes get full node securityExplains how DAS lets light nodes verify invalid blocks by sampling erasure-coded chunks, giving near full-node security if one honest full node produces KZG commitments (Avail) or fraud proofs (Celestia). More light nodes allow larger blocks without higher hardware needs.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

23 May 2023Data availability versus data storage: who archives rollup data post EIP-4844Distinguishes data availability from data storage. After EIP-4844, blobs are not stored permanently, so archival nodes run by indexers, explorers and apps are needed, and decentralized storage layers could be incentivized for this role.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

19 Apr 20232023 narratives: zkEVMs, privacy L1s, restaking, modular DA and perpsAuthor's narrative watchlist for 2023: zkEVMs, zk privacy L1s, restaking, WASM and RISC-V L2 VMs, interoperability, DA layers, shared sequencers, rollup SDKs, recursive L3s, EIP-4844, account abstraction, parallel VMs, identity and perps.ThesisZKL1/L2Ethereum

04 Apr 2023RISC Zero zkVM: bringing RISC-V languages to web3Argues RISC Zero's zkVM, built on the RISC-V instruction set, can onboard devs using C++, Rust or Python, unlike EVM-only zkEVMs. It can power new rollups or L1s and issue receipts that Ethereum contracts verify for off-chain compute.BreakdownZKL1/L2

29 Mar 2023Running a Celestia bridge node: node types and hardware needsOverview of Celestia's five node types, split into consensus and data availability nodes, and what a bridge node does between the two layers. Lists recommended hardware for the incentivized testnet bridge node.ExplainerL1/L2Tooling

28 Mar 2023Eclipse x Nautilus: a modular zkEVM rollup on the Solana VMExplains how Nautilus is assembled from Eclipse for settlement, Celestia for data availability, the Solana VM with Neon EVM for execution, and a planned RISC Zero zk proof upgrade, as an example of the modular thesis.BreakdownL1/L2SolanaZK

21 Mar 2023March 2023 watchlist: L2 VMs, zkEVMs, DA, sequencers, AA and perpsList of themes to watch: WASM and RISC-V VMs on L2, zkEVMs, specialized DA layers, shared sequencers, rollup SDKs, recursive L3s, EIP-4844, account abstraction, MPC custody, parallel VMs, identity and decentralized perps.MapEthereumL1/L2ZK

13 Jan 2023Index: Book of Alpha, rollups, modular, privacy and zk threads (Jan 2023)Bookmarkable index of the author's research: cryptography and privacy primers, Web3 essays, research tools, Ethereum rollups, zkEVM, airdrop guides and the modular thesis series.MapEthereumL1/L2Privacy

12 Jan 2023Modular designs on Celestia: Rollmint, Saga, Dymension rollApps and CevmosShows how Celestia's DA layer enables new architectures: Rollmint sovereign rollups, Saga rollup-as-a-service, Dymension rollApps with Hub settlement, the Cevmos settlement stack and Fuel as an execution layer.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

11 Jan 2023Rollup vs validium vs volition: data availability modes for zk execution layersShort classification of zk-powered layers by where data lives: zk rollups post proof and data on ETH, validiums keep data off-chain, volitions can switch between both.ExplainerZKL1/L2

10 Jan 2023Celestia data availability sampling lets light nodes verify blocksExplains that Celestia light nodes get near full-node security by randomly downloading small pieces of a block until confident all data is available.ExplainerL1/L2

02 Jan 20232023 investment thesis: ETH, modular rollups, app chains, zk privacy, DeFiLays out five pillars of the 2023 thesis: ETH as core infrastructure, modular architecture with generalized zk rollups, app-specific chains and rollapps, privacy tech especially zk proofs, and a DeFi comeback. Quotes ETH as L1 + L2 + L3.ThesisEthereumZKPrivacy

2022 11

27 Dec 2022ZK and modular stack watchlist: zkEVMs, zkVM, Aleo and EspressoSelection of projects under review: zkEVMs (Scroll, zkSync, StarkWare, Polygon Hermez, Kakarot), RISC Zero zkVM, Specular EVM-native optimistic rollup, Aleo private L1 and Espresso decentralized sequencers. States a modular bull stance.MapZKL1/L2Privacy

11 Dec 2022Fuel primer: UTXO-based parallel execution and the FuelVMPrimer on Fuel as a modular execution layer with a UTXO model and strict access lists enabling parallel execution, plus the Sway language, testnet status, team background and funding. Compares to Solana, Sui and Aptos parallelism.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

11 Dec 2022EigenLayer and EigenDA: restaking to secure middleware and scale DAExplains EigenLayer restaking of staked ETH to secure off-chain middleware, applies it to DA via EigenDA and compares it with Celestia and Avail, arguing it deserves more attention and may even rival danksharding.ExplainerEthereumL1/L2

10 Dec 2022The modular blockchain design space: execution, settlement and DA layersMega thread defining execution, settlement and consensus/DA, then mapping modular layers: rollups and Fuel for execution, Celestia, Avail and EigenDA for DA, and Oasis for custom ParaTimes, with the thesis that modular is the future.MapL1/L2Ethereum

09 Dec 2022Celestia data availability explained, plus running a Mamaki light nodeRecaps the data availability problem and Celestia's modular DA and consensus layer, and notes the author is running a light node on the Mamaki testnet, contributing to data availability sampling and block size scaling.ExplainerL1/L2Ethereum

22 Sep 2022Index: rollups, zkEVM, data availability and airdrop threads (Sept 2022)Thread of threads organizing the author's modular scaling research: rollup intro and landscape, zkEVM, protocol deep dives, DA problem, EIP-4844, Celestia, Cevmos, Avail and airdrop guides.MapEthereumL1/L2

02 Sep 2022Index: Book of Alpha, DotSama, privacy, rollups and modular threads (Sept 2022)Bookmarkable thread of threads linking earlier research on DotSama, privacy projects, Bitcoin fees, Terra, Ethereum rollups, zk tech and modular architecture.MapEthereumL1/L2

15 Jun 2022Index: rollup scaling, data availability and L2 airdrop threads (June 2022)Thread of threads indexing the author's rollup work: scaling intro, rollup landscape, EIP-4844, Optimism, Arbitrum, Metis, L3, dAMM, airdrop guides and the DA and Celestia series.MapEthereumL1/L2

13 Jun 2022The Cevmos stack: EVM rollups on Celestia with an Evmos settlement layerDescribes Cevmos, a modular stack where an Evmos-based settlement rollup uses Optimint and Celestia for DA, with rollups deployed recursively on top and trust-minimized bridges between them.ExplainerL1/L2

12 Jun 2022Celestia deep dive: modular DA layer with data availability samplingMega thread explaining Celestia as a minimal chain that only orders transactions and guarantees data availability. Covers light nodes, fraud proofs, erasure coding with data availability sampling, execution separation and namespaced Merkle trees.BreakdownL1/L2Ethereum

11 Jun 2022The data availability problem and the DA landscape for rollupsExplains why DA limits rollup throughput and maps the options by security and cost: validiums with a single provider, DAC-based validiums, Celestiums, and full rollups posting to Ethereum.MapEthereumL1/L2

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