FOMC outcome scenarios: how 25bps, 50bps and 75bps cuts could hit markets
Quote101 words
Gives the author's view on FOMC outcomes: 25bps most bullish, 50bps ambiguous but worrisome, 75bps a sign of a weak economy. Notes CME FedWatch priced 50bps.
Key claims
25bps cut is probably most bullish for markets
50bps can go both ways but is worrisome
75bps cut would signal a weak economy
FOMC decision on rate cuts coming shortly.
Market expects 50bps according to @CMEGroup's Fed Watch.
My opinion on potential outcomes:
➤ 25bps cut = probably most bullish for markets
➤ 50bps cut = can go both ways but worrisome
➤ 75bps cut* = bad news, economy is f**ked & market will acknowledge
* ) highly unlikely but demanded by senators in letter to Powell
Why? ⤵️
👆If you're looking for info around imminent FOMC & rate cuts by the Fed, check the post above and ride the QT train.
50bps rate cut confirmed
x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1836465257402786178
Linking back to this here. ⤵️
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/1836480399087931536
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
< 12h until a decisive FOMC and the first rate cuts by the Fed since March 2022. Market expects 50bps cut, while @BlackRock said yesterday that they expect less (25bps). What does it mean for markets? 📈 💸 Historically, stock market returns (stocks are likely to lead the way fo
< 12h until a decisive FOMC and the first rate cuts by the Fed since March 2022. Market expects 50bps cut, while @BlackRock said yesterday that they expect less (25bps). What does it mean for markets? 📈 💸 Historically, stock market returns (stocks are likely to lead the way fo
What came next · since 18 Sep 2024
Since then
Zero has written 1 more piece on Federal Reserve since this one.
- Powell after the 50bps cut: key takeaways and panic-cut riskOn Federal Reserve