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Federal Reserve

9 pieces · Sep 2024 to Jan 2026

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Market take04 Sep 2024Macro setup into the Sept 2024 FOMC: rate cut odds and the 2007 parallelWalks through the key US data week and the 2007 rate-cut parallel. Cites CME odds of 59% for 25 bps and 41% for 50 bps, expects volatility but a 25 bps cut, and flags idle stablecoin liquidity as potential firepower.Data22 Jan 2026Greenland tariffs test: Bitcoin is a high-beta macro asset, not digital goldSummarises an A1 Research study of Bitcoin through the Greenland tariff event: it captured downside without upside while equities recovered and gold held gains. Concludes BTC trades with risk appetite.Market take17 Sep 2024Fed rate cut size and market reaction: why 25bps beats 50bps or 75bpsArgues a 25bps cut is the bullish outcome while 50bps or 75bps risks being read as panic over a recession. Cites historical panic cuts as negative at 1 and 3 months but positive at 6 and 12 months.

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2026 1

22 Jan 2026Greenland tariffs test: Bitcoin is a high-beta macro asset, not digital goldSummarises an A1 Research study of Bitcoin through the Greenland tariff event: it captured downside without upside while equities recovered and gold held gains. Concludes BTC trades with risk appetite.DataBitcoinMacro

2024 8

18 Sep 2024Powell after the 50bps cut: key takeaways and panic-cut riskSummarizes Powell's press conference after the 50bps cut: strong economy, no preset path, meeting by meeting decisions. Notes 50bps cuts have often been read as panic cuts with weak market returns, but Powell worked to avoid that read.Market takeMacro

18 Sep 2024FOMC outcome scenarios: how 25bps, 50bps and 75bps cuts could hit marketsGives the author's view on FOMC outcomes: 25bps most bullish, 50bps ambiguous but worrisome, 75bps a sign of a weak economy. Notes CME FedWatch priced 50bps.Market takeMacro

18 Sep 2024FOMC preview: 25 vs 50 vs 75bps and historical returns after first cutsPre-FOMC analysis arguing stocks historically respond well to first rate cuts if there is no recession and poorly if there is, with July 2019 as the exception. Sees 25bps as bullish and 50bps worrisome.Market takeMacro

17 Sep 2024Fed rate cut size and market reaction: why 25bps beats 50bps or 75bpsArgues a 25bps cut is the bullish outcome while 50bps or 75bps risks being read as panic over a recession. Cites historical panic cuts as negative at 1 and 3 months but positive at 6 and 12 months.Market takeMacro

12 Sep 2024US CPI August 2024 results and rate cut outlookBreaks down the August CPI print and what it means for the Fed. Inflation is cooling, the market expects a 25bps cut, and the author sees a bright Uptober outlook but high volatility.DataMacro

11 Sep 2024FOMC T-7 days: Cleveland Fed estimates and CPI vs PCE explainedLooks at cooling inflation and rising unemployment ahead of the first rate cut in 2.5 years, and explains the difference between CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE and why the Fed prefers core PCE.ExplainerMacro

11 Sep 2024CPI preview: headline vs core expectations ahead of FOMCPreviews the August CPI release: headline forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, down from 2.9%, while core stays at 3.2% YoY. Notes how this could influence the Sept 18 FOMC decision.Market takeMacro

04 Sep 2024Macro setup into the Sept 2024 FOMC: rate cut odds and the 2007 parallelWalks through the key US data week and the 2007 rate-cut parallel. Cites CME odds of 59% for 25 bps and 41% for 50 bps, expects volatility but a 25 bps cut, and flags idle stablecoin liquidity as potential firepower.Market takeMacro

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