Commit-reveal prediction protocol: sealed calls, provenance and accuracy
Thread645 words
Describes a commit-reveal protocol where calls are encrypted client-side and only a hash is stored, proving provenance. Grading is self-reported and disputable, and for-sale alpha is custodial for now, with escrow and re-encryption planned.
Key claims
Provenance is trustless; accuracy is self-graded and challengeable
For-sale calls are escrowed on the server until a buyer unlocks them
Planned: per-seal key derivation, onchain escrow, re-encryption to the buyer
Everyone calls everything. nobody keeps the receipts.
The result?
Your timeline runs on screenshots of the wins and quiet deletes of the losses. you can edit a tweet, backdate a take, delete the bad call and repost the one that hit like you always saw it coming. being wrong costs nothing and being right proves nothing.
t.co/z4NQaZVcIT kills that game.
It is a commit-reveal protocol for predictions.
WTF is that?
Simple.
You write a call, it gets encrypted in your browser before it leaves your machine, and the server only ever stores a hash it physically cannot read. that hash is your commitment: timestamped, frozen, public. no edits, no deletes, no backdating.
When it resolves, you reveal. the hash is recomputed and checked against what you sealed. match, and the timeline now has cryptographic proof you said it before it happened. not a screenshot, just math.
Then you grade your own call. HIT, MISS, or PARTIAL.
Here is exactly the part most reputation systems fumble: that grade is not trusted.
It is public and anyone can dispute it. Grade a clear miss as a hit and you get flagged, while disputed calls fall out of clean accuracy.
So the protocol tracks two separate things on purpose.
- Provenance: did you call it first. trustless, pure math, unfakeable.
- Accuracy: were you actually right. self-graded, challengeable, the crowd is the check.
Reputation is computed from raw data on a public formula. Set a resolve-by date and ghost it, you land in the graveyard. Own a miss honestly and your credibility survives.
But you know what?
There is a market too.
Seal a call as exclusive alpha and list it. There can only be one buyer per call/decryption key, and you pay in ETH on Base.
The decryption key is escrowed so they unlock without the seller having to be online, and the hash still proves the content is real.
Proofs over promises.
Prove it before it happens.
Sign in with X and seal your first one.
For full transparency: this is an early version I built with @AnthropicAI's Claude Fable + Claude Opus, and I would rather be precise about what is trustless today and what gets better next.
What is already trustless: the integrity layer. The hash proves what you sealed and when, with your own browser re-checking it. Nobody, me included, can fake it or change it after the fact. That part needs zero trust in me.
What is custodial for now:
Selling. When you list a call as exclusive alpha, the decrypt key is escrowed on the server so the buyer can unlock without you being online. That means a for-sale call is theoretically readable by the platform until it sells (which I won't do tho, trust me bros).
Private calls you never list are never escrowed. The key never leaves your machine, fully confidential.
So to be exact:
Your private predictions are trustless today. Your for-sale alpha trusts the platform with the plaintext until a buyer takes it. That is a deliberate alpha-stage tradeoff, and I would rather state it plainly than dress it up.
Where this goes in the next few days if/as we gain traction:
- Per-seal key derivation, so no single secret can ever unlock everything at once.
- An on-chain escrow contract, so payment is held and swapped atomically with refunds, and the platform never custodies funds. (Note that in absence of this there is an edge case scenario of a contested race among bidders for one sealed call, unlikely to be of much relevance at launch volume levels tho).
- And eventually re-encryption straight to the buyer's own key, so the server never sees the plaintext at all.
The direction is simple.
Continue to shrink the trust you place in me toward zero over time. Proofs over promises has to apply to our own stack too.
LFG
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