Unitree vs Figure: pre-IPO perp math and risks on Hyperliquid HIP-3
Quote411 words
Adds to Louround's take that Unitree ($9B, profitable) and Figure ($39B, no revenue) cannot both be right. Computes about $35.4B implied valuation from an $87.4 perp price and lists risks: cooling growth, falling ASPs and the FCC ban.
Key claims
$87.4 perp vs 150.80 yuan IPO price = about 3.9x, about $35.4B across 404.5M shares
Growth cooled from 335% to about 40%
Humanoid ASPs down 72% since 2023; FCC ban could hit about 13% of revenue
Great breakdown by @louround_ on $UNITREE and agree with the core take.
One of the two valuations is wrong, and my money is on Figure’s being the stale one.
A few additions from my end to complete the picture:
➤ Re timeline: Monday Aug 10 is subscription, not the listing, and debut is expected around Aug 19 (SSE hasn’t confirmed the exact day yet tho). This gives the perp another week of solo price discovery.
➤ On maths: perp is at $87.4 rn (Lou’s ~$90 was two days ago, it chopped btwn $80-90 since) vs the ¥150.80 (~$22) IPO price. Across 404.5M shares that’s ~$35.4B implied valuation and a ~3.9x repricing. Since STAR (the Sci-Tech Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange) has no price limits the first 5 sessions, nothing stops $UNITREE from going there (also see $CXMT which recently surged 466% on debut).
➤ HL’s HIP-3 market pre-IPO record: $CBRS perp landed within a few % of the Nasdaq open, and $SPCX closed day one on the perp-implied level. Undoubtedly @HyperliquidX is the leading pre-IPO price discovery venue and best IPO oracle at this point. Means that also in this case, PA on HL is def worth watching as an indicator.
➤ The are also a few risks too: Bc while it's true that Unitree is the only profitable, scaled humanoid robotics pure-play rn, its growth has been cooling from 335% to ~40%, with H1 profit projected to retrace 6-22%, humanoid ASPs down 72% since 2023, and a recent FCC ban on new Chinese robot models bearing potential to tarnish roughly 13% of revenue (existing approvals still stand tho).
The asymmetry Lou points out, a.k.a. Unitree (profitable market leader) at $9B vs. Figure at $39B (on zero revenue) is definitely noticeable tho, and it will be very interesting to see in which direction the pendulum swings.
Either private marks is off and will come down or the public benchmark rips until they meet.
Imo the latter will happen and the currently implied $UNITREE valuation on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 markets is def not outlandish.
What’s your take anon?
I did actually long $UNITREE myself on Hyperliquid via @quotemarkets a few days ago btw. Entered a smol position at $80 with 2k margin at 5x leverage (10k notional), and am up ~1k already lol.
Why Quote? Because I care about execution.
Last note: Both @tradexyz (xyz) and @tradeparagon (para) have a $UNITREE HIP-3 market live (gud to finally see some competition here)
QUOTING @Louround_
Unitree is currently priced at $36b on Hyperliquid, comparatively similar to Figure AI's last private round at $39b. Despite Figure AI not being accessible pre-IPO, Unitree's metrics and expectations are much higher and one of the 2 valuations is wrong. Unitree is a robotics co
Unitree is currently priced at $36b on Hyperliquid, comparatively similar to Figure AI's last private round at $39b. Despite Figure AI not being accessible pre-IPO, Unitree's metrics and expectations are much higher and one of the 2 valuations is wrong. Unitree is a robotics co
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What came next · since 09 Aug 2026
No public market for $UNITREE.
Since then
Zero has written 3 more pieces on $UNITREE since this one.
- Weekly AI x Robotics digest: open models, AI capital, Unitree IPOCovers $UNITREE
- Unitree IPO demand: 8,289x oversubscribed, $1.1T bid for $905MCovers $UNITREE
- Robotics szn: three bets via Unitree perp, BOT closed-end fund and CODECBullish call on $UNITREE