Standard Reserve moon maths part 1: base, bull and moon scenarios
Quote648 words
Market since$STANDARD−26%since listingHow it played out ↓Scenario model of the mint and 12 months of system behavior: base $7.4M launch FDV to $26M (3.5x), bull $18.1M to $243M (13x), moon $23.9M to $3.2B (135x). A passive whitelist seat is worth 0.42, 4.5 or 111 ETH on a 0.15 ETH cost.
Key claims
Base: $7.4M to $26M FDV, 168M issued, 62M burned
Bull: $18.1M to $243M, 55% burned
Moon: $23.9M to $3.2B, passive seat 738x
Ran the launch math on the @standard_rsv mint, then let the whitepaper mechanics run itself for 12 months.
Time to talk moon math scenarios. ↓
Launch day numbers are the only verified ones we have rn:
100M $STANDARD sits full range in the Uniswap v4 pool that is the foundation of the entire system.
Hence, launch FDV is 10x the ETH in the pool.
𝟭 ) 𝗕𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲:
Assumptions:
- 500 whitelist seats at 0.15
- 500 public clearing at 0.40
- Team adds 100, 80% into the pool
= 300 ETH in the pool = $7.4M FDV = $0.0074 per token.
The system, 12 months out:
Assumptions:
- 65% of weeks in expansion
- Traders net buy 5% of the pool per expansion week and net sell 5% per contraction week
- 5 year issuance runway
- 40 of the 100 daily licenses clear
- 3% of balances retired weekly
That would mean:
- $STANDARD ends at $0.026 (equalling 3.5x launch price and $26M FDV.
- Branches grow from 1,000 to the 10,000 cap (one branch goes from $3.65 a day to $0.97 in earnings)
-A passive whitelist seat accrues 39K $STANDARD, worth 0.42 ETH, which is 2.8x the cost basis with the latter paid back in month 1.4.
- The bank issues 168M, burns 62M (37%), ends with 593 ETH of permanent liquidity and 238 ETH of hard reserves.
- $7.4M launch FDV (300 ETH in the pool) → $26M at month 12 (3.5x)
𝟮 ) 𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲:
Assumptions:
- 450 whitelist seats at 0.15
- 550 public clearing at 0.90
- Team adds 250, 90% into the pool
= 731 ETH in the pool = $18.1M FDV = $0.018 per token.
The system, 12 months out:
Assumptions:
- 70% of weeks in expansion
- Traders net buy 5.5% of the pool per expansion week and net sell 4% per contraction week
- 4 year issuance runway, multiplier starts at 1.2x
- 80 of the 100 daily licenses clear
- 2% of balances retired weekly, 40% of withdrawals sold
That would mean:
- $STANDARD ends at $0.24 (13x launch price and $243M FDV)
- Branches grow from 1,000 to the 10,000 cap (one branch goes from $13 a day to $15, dilution offset by price)
- A passive whitelist seat accrues 46K $STANDARD, worth 4.5 ETH, which is 30x the cost basis, paid back in month 0.5
- A built seat (10 branches, held) is worth 16 ETH
- The bank issues 224M, burns 122M (55%), ends with 2,981 ETH of permanent liquidity and 1,608 ETH of hard reserves after 718 ETH of buybacks
- $18.1M launch FDV (731 ETH in the pool) → $243M at month 12 (13x)
𝟯 ) 𝗠𝗼𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲:
Assumptions:
450 whitelist seats at 0.15
550 public clearing at 1.00
Team adds 400, 95% into the pool
= 967 ETH in the pool = $23.9M FDV = $0.024 per token.
The system, 12 months out
Assumptions:
- 80% of weeks in expansion
- Traders net buy 5.5% of the pool per expansion week and net sell 3% per contraction week
- 3 year issuance runway, multiplier starts at 1.5x
- All 100 daily licenses clear at 40 days of yield
- 1% of balances retired weekly, 20% of withdrawals sold
That would mean:
- $STANDARD ends at $3.21 (135x launch price and $3.2B FDV)
- Branches hit the 10,000 cap (one branch goes from $29 a day to $264)
- A passive whitelist seat accrues 85K $STANDARD, worth 111 ETH, 738x the cost basis
- A built seat is worth 320 ETH
- The bank issues 367M, burns 191M (52%), ends with 13,823 ETH of permanent liquidity and 13,016 ETH of hard reserves after 2,426 ETH of buybacks
- $23.9M launch FDV (967 ETH in the pool) → $3.2B at month 12 (135x)
Want to try yourself?
Build your scenario here: t.co/ua4x6brCHX
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
Standard Reserve is coming. Genesis Charter NFTs are minting tomorrow, giving rise to the first wave of bankers, and kicking off what is maybe the greatest economic onchain experiment of all time. TL;DR of everything you need to know ↓ First, WTF IS THIS? @standard_rsv is an
Standard Reserve is coming. Genesis Charter NFTs are minting tomorrow, giving rise to the first wave of bankers, and kicking off what is maybe the greatest economic onchain experiment of all time. TL;DR of everything you need to know ↓ First, WTF IS THIS? @standard_rsv is an
How the covered assets moved · since 13 Sep 2026
Prices as of 23 Oct 2026This data piece reports the numbers without making a call on the token, so price moves since publication are shown as market context.
Covered in this piece
Since then
Zero has written 7 more pieces on $STANDARD since this one.
- Standard Reserve bull case: reflexive issuance and Robinhood Chain liquidityBullish call on $STANDARD
- Standard Reserve: adding branches after Mandate II and v1.1/v1.2 upgradesBullish call on $STANDARD
- Standard Reserve: why add branch licenses, Mandate II and the burn loopBullish call on $STANDARD
- Standard Reserve branch license auctions: 4.4M STANDARD burned in three daysBullish call on $STANDARD
Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish thesis is read as a call; explainers, maps and mentions are context. Not financial advice.