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9 pieces · Sep 2022 to Jun 2026 · 2 flagship

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Market structure4 Hyperliquid2 AI2 Regulation2 L1/L22 DeFi2

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12022

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Start here · the strongest pieces on Binance

Thesis14 Sep 2024Make ICOs Great Again: how VC-dominated token launches broke crypto marketsLong argument that VC-dominated cap tables, low float and high FDV launches and market maker dynamics shift value from communities to insiders. Calls for regulated ICO platforms with KYC and reputation systems, using zkSync as the example.Map10 Sep 2022Stablecoin landscape: centralized, overcollateralized and algorithmic designsMaps stablecoin designs by the trilemma of peg stability, capital efficiency and decentralization: fiat-backed, CDP-based, algorithmic and fractional-algorithmic, with market caps and post-UST risk lessons.Data24 May 2025HYPE vs BNB: 8.85x away from flipping on circulating market capCompares BNB ($97.4B) with HYPE ($11B, FDV $33B), finding an 8.85x gap on circulating cap. HYPE has 2.5% of Binance spot volume and 12.2% of perp volume, and $1.27B in HyperEVM and HyperCore TVL vs BSC.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2026 1

25 Jun 2026HYPE at $60 vs BNB at $10: the Binance trajectory argumentArgues that fading HYPE at $60 is the same mistake as fading BNB at $10, framing Hyperliquid as being on the Binance trajectory and pointing to the Multicoin valuation report.ThesisHyperliquidMarket structure30 likes

2025 2

15 Nov 2025Sentient SENT pre-market at $2.25B FDV vs seed valuation and peersNotes SENT trades at $2.25B FDV on Binance pre-market versus a rumored $1.2B seed valuation, and expects higher based on peer valuations.Market takeAIMarket structure23 likes

24 May 2025HYPE vs BNB: 8.85x away from flipping on circulating market capCompares BNB ($97.4B) with HYPE ($11B, FDV $33B), finding an 8.85x gap on circulating cap. HYPE has 2.5% of Binance spot volume and 12.2% of perp volume, and $1.27B in HyperEVM and HyperCore TVL vs BSC.DataHyperliquidMarket structure27 likes

2024 3

14 Sep 2024Make ICOs Great Again: how VC-dominated token launches broke crypto marketsLong argument that VC-dominated cap tables, low float and high FDV launches and market maker dynamics shift value from communities to insiders. Calls for regulated ICO platforms with KYC and reputation systems, using zkSync as the example.ThesisMarket structureRegulation38 likes

11 Jun 2024io.net at Binance listing: 18x the GPUs of Render at a similar FDVCompares io.net's GPU supply to Render at launch: 18x as many GPUs while RNDR sits at a $4.4B FDV versus a $3.5B pre-market FDV for IO. Frames IO as a decentralized AI compute play.Market takeAIDePIN24 likes

02 May 2024Movement Labs ecosystem update: modular MoveVM after $38M Series AArgues Move's formal verification and a parallel MoveVM make Movement's M2 rollup (Ethereum settlement, Celestia DA) a key modular play after its $38M Series A. Notes new ecosystem additions such as WarpGate and Nightly and Binance's participation.Market takeL1/L233 likes

2023 2

23 Nov 2023Proof of Alpha #20: Blast critique, hybrid zk fraud proofs and CZ plea dealNewsletter edition. Calls Blast a multisig-controlled deposit contract with no real L2 bridge and almost USD 200m in it, argues for hybrid zk fraud proofs as a cheaper stopgap before full validity rollups, and recaps the Binance settlement with $1.3B withdrawn.OtherL1/L2ZKRegulation16 likes

06 Apr 2023Ethereum staking data ahead of Shanghai: validators and market shareData thread before the Shanghai upgrade using a 21Shares Dune dashboard: validator and depositor counts, about 15% of supply staked, and market share across pools, liquid staking, CEXes and home stakers. Lido stETH dominates liquid staking.DataEthereumDeFi14 likes

2022 1

10 Sep 2022Stablecoin landscape: centralized, overcollateralized and algorithmic designsMaps stablecoin designs by the trilemma of peg stability, capital efficiency and decentralization: fiat-backed, CDP-based, algorithmic and fractional-algorithmic, with market caps and post-UST risk lessons.MapStablecoinsDeFi12 likes

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Hyperliquid113 Circle9 Sentient12 BNB Chain7 zkSync41 Matter Labs5 Legion6 io.net71

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