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Machines & Money

8 pieces · Jan 2026 to Mar 2026

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DeFi4 Bitcoin3 Macro2 Stablecoins2 Tokenized stocks1 AI1

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82026

Start here · the strongest pieces on Machines & Money

Data14 Feb 2026Prediction markets: $5B to $30B, and the path to $180B and $1TPrediction markets grew 6x from $5B in 2024 to $30B in 2025. Susquehanna's entry on Kalshi brought 30x more liquidity; the bear case is inter-event volume collapse, and HIP-4 could bridge derivatives traders and normies.Thesis29 Jan 2026Bitcoin as regime change insurance, not a debasement hedgeArgues 2025 delivered orderly debasement, which is gold's home turf, so Bitcoin lagged. Its thesis is conditional on chaotic scenarios such as capital controls or sovereign failures that did not occur.Breakdown27 Jan 2026Machines & Money: how Web3 flattens the world of moneySummarises an A1 Research issue arguing blockchains are the foundation for open internet money: stablecoin payments, x402 agent commerce, neobanks bridging TradFi and DeFi, and tokenized capital markets.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2026 8

03 Mar 2026Synthetic assets: one USDC pool as liquidity backbone for many marketsArgues the real unlock of synthetics is a single USDC pool backing gold, oil, micro-cap altcoins, real estate indices and the S&P 500 at once, so new markets inherit depth without dedicated market makers.Market takeDeFi

02 Mar 2026DeFi In Five: S&P AAA onchain fund, Aave $1T loans, AgentFi near $500MDigest: S&P Global rated an onchain treasury fund AAA, Aave passed $1T cumulative loans, tokenized stocks hit $1B market cap, Virtuals agentic GDP nears $500M, and Lombard, Sentora and Veda stack 3.3% APY on BTC.Market takeDeFiTokenized stocksAI

02 Mar 2026Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold, zero bought BitcoinCentral banks bought 863t of gold in 2025 and none bought Bitcoin, while gold rallied 25% to a $5,595 ATH and Bitcoin halved. Says the better question is which risk factors drive BTC returns now.DataBitcoinMacro

15 Feb 2026Why yield-bearing stablecoins could be onchain options' distribution layerFirst-wave onchain options (Dopex, Ribbon, Lyra) failed on retail complexity; vaults and stablecoin yield abstract it away. As basis trade yields compress, curators will add options for diversification.Market takeDeFiStablecoins

14 Feb 2026Prediction markets: $5B to $30B, and the path to $180B and $1TPrediction markets grew 6x from $5B in 2024 to $30B in 2025. Susquehanna's entry on Kalshi brought 30x more liquidity; the bear case is inter-event volume collapse, and HIP-4 could bridge derivatives traders and normies.DataPrediction marketsHyperliquid

12 Feb 2026MSTR: neither death spiral nor safe havenArgues the old Strategy bull case is over now IBIT holds 767k BTC without governance risk, yet the debt stack is manageable: converts mature 2028 and $2.25B cash covers 2.5+ years. The gap is $888M in annual obligations against $477M software revenue.Market takeBitcoinMarket structure

29 Jan 2026Bitcoin as regime change insurance, not a debasement hedgeArgues 2025 delivered orderly debasement, which is gold's home turf, so Bitcoin lagged. Its thesis is conditional on chaotic scenarios such as capital controls or sovereign failures that did not occur.ThesisBitcoinMacro

27 Jan 2026Machines & Money: how Web3 flattens the world of moneySummarises an A1 Research issue arguing blockchains are the foundation for open internet money: stablecoin payments, x402 agent commerce, neobanks bridging TradFi and DeFi, and tokenized capital markets.BreakdownStablecoinsRWADeFi

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A1 Research39 Aave14 Virtuals10 Kalshi6 Hyperliquid114 Bitcoin6 ether.fi16 BlackRock12

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