Prediction markets: $5B to $30B, and the path to $180B and $1T
Quote264 words
Prediction markets grew 6x from $5B in 2024 to $30B in 2025. Susquehanna's entry on Kalshi brought 30x more liquidity; the bear case is inter-event volume collapse, and HIP-4 could bridge derivatives traders and normies.
Key claims
$5B in 2024 to $30B in 2025
Susquehanna on Kalshi compressed spreads to sub-3 cents
Weekly global volume must hold above $1B between the World Cup and midterms
$5B in 2024.
$30B in 2025.
Prediction markets just did a 6x in one year.
The path from here to $180B is a product execution problem.
The path from $180B to $1T is a market structure transformation.
Completely different challenges, completely different playbooks.
What stands out from the institutional side is Susquehanna's entry into @Kalshi delivering a 30x liquidity increase. Literally one serious market maker compressed spreads to sub-3 cents. Imagine what happens when three or four more show up.
The bear case around inter-event volume collapse deserves more attention than it gets as well though:
If baseline weekly volume on global level can't hold above $1B between the World Cup and midterms this year, the "new financial primitive" thesis starts looking more like seasonal entertainment than the game-changer it is supposed to be.
Cross-genre parlays are a key unlock. NFL outcomes combined with Fed rate decisions in a single position. Hedging financial bets with macro/geopolitics bets. No sportsbook and no derivatives exchange can structurally offer that today.
That's where prediction markets stop competing and start creating entirely new categories and markets.
Especially @HyperliquidX's HIP-4 is worth watching here too. Fully collateralized outcome contracts with non-linear payoffs, no leverage, no liquidations. If a venue with that kind of existing liquidity infrastructure nails prediction markets, it could be the bridge that brings both serious derivatives traders and normies into the space at the same time.
Full breakdown by @sakshimiishra for @machinesmoneyA1 goes deep on infrastructure gaps, from oracle resolution and the leverage problem unique to binary markets.
Worth your time.
Check it out below! ↓
QUOTING @a1research__
t.co/YEyvXY2DTQ
t.co/YEyvXY2DTQ
2 images on X