AVAIL undervalued versus TIA: DA design, valuation and unlock timing
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Argues AVAIL at $1.4B FDV is undervalued mid-term versus TIA at roughly 5x its valuation. Cites Avail's ZK-validity design, the Nexus and Fusion roadmap, and TIA's Nov 2 cliff versus a year without AVAIL investor unlocks.
Key claims
AVAIL FDV $1.4B after a low of $830M
TIA valued at about 5x AVAIL
TIA cliff unlock of over 85% of supply on Nov 2
$AVAIL now at $1.4B FDV after going down to $830M on Monday's crash.
It's up >67% since bottom, and I'm still holding my bags. 💎 🙌
Why?
I believe that $AVAIL is significantly undervalued in the mid-long term.
Let me explain why! 📈👇
@AvailProject recently launched Avail DA mainnet.
That's basically @CelestiaOrg but with full nodes ensuring block validity through ZK proofs rather than a fraud proving mechanism (and built on Substrate rather than Cosmos SDK).
That reduces latency, and as some might argue, increases security.
Like Celestia, Avail DA is powered by light nodes that perform data availability sampling.
A powerful feature of this novel design is that @AvailProject can scale the block size that can be securely sampled by the light nodes with an increasing number of light nodes in the system.
As long as there is at least one honest full node, the light nodes can operate under almost the same security guarantees.
It also means that the network scales linearly with participation in terms of max data throughput.
Since light node operation comes with very low hardware requirements and is generally possible from any device, the barriers of entry are very low, which also promotes network decentralization.
Why does all of this matter?
Avail DA, just like @CelestiaOrg, has one core focus, and that is providing abundant and cheap block space to rollups to publish their data to.
Doing so at scale and while maintaining decentralization & security, is a problem these modular DA layers solve.
But enough about DA.
@AvailProject has a much broader vision. 🔮 👇
With the proof aggregation layer Nexus and the shared security (a.k.a. restaking) layer Fusion, @AvailProject is building a cohesive infrastructure base for a cohesive and unified ecosystem of app- and vertical specific blockchains.
Beyond scalable DA, @AvailProject is setting out to "unify Web3", solving interoperability and cross-rollup composability, while maintaining decentralization and security.
Don't get me wrong though. I'm not saying Avail is better than Celestia and I'm also not saying that it's very surprising that $AVAIL stands where it currently does compared to Celestia (especially considering market conditions).
Celestia and its ecosystem are much more developed already. It also enjoys the first-mover advantage and definitely has more mindshare than @AvailProject currently does.
But I'm bullish @CelestiaOrg and I also think that $TIA has brighter times ahead with the ecosystem maturing and $TIA use cases across Celestia-based execution layers emerging (hope the nov 2nd unlock doesn't mess it up tho).
The "stake for airdrop" narrative from earlier this year could still be powerful, especially once the airdrops actually come in, which I expect to happen in the coming months.
However, I can see a similar narrative emerge for $AVAIL too.
As more of the infra pieces to complete the vision of a unified Web3 are released too, I think the $AVAIL valuation is set for an upward correction in the next few months (given markets don't die first).
If there are airdrops along the way, even better. 🪂
With the recent market crash, launch timing for $AVAIL was unfortunate in retrospective.
But as outlined initially, I believe that this could be an opportunity.
$TIA has seen $20B FDV before. Will it go back there?
I don't know.
But I'm pretty sure that $TIA at 5x the valuation of $AVAIL is probably a ratio that is too high in the long-term and with a very bullish case for both of them this cycle imo, it's worth doing your research.
Also interesting:
Look at the supply charts for $AVAIL and $TIA.
They look very similar.
☞ $AVAIL:
☞ $TIA:
However, the timeline is different.
@CelestiaOrg has huge unlocks (>85% of supply cliff unlock) comping up and from Nov 2nd, there will be millions in daily vested investor tokens.
More on this here: t.co/ypEgJASRPM
$AVAIL on the other hand still has a year without unlocks on investor or core team side ahead.
That means less sell pressure and ample time to build out an ecosystem during the bull.
As we approach the major $TIA unlocks, I could see a rotation from $TIA to the currently undervalued $AVAIL.
In any case, $AVAIL is definitely one of my main bets this cycle.
My post-airdrop $AVAIL strategy: t.co/mV0CXzBrof
⚠️ NFA tho sers, DYOR!
What's your take anon? 👀
Do you hold $AVAIL?
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
✨ 🪂 My Post-Airdrop Strategy for AVAIL 🪂 ✨ ✦ Bridge $AVAIL to Ethereum ✦ Stake $AVAIL on @deq_fi ✦ Receive $stAVAIL on Ethereum ✦ Hold $stAVAIL in EVM wallet to deploy in DeFi (soon) This strategy allows me to: ✦ Retain exposure to $AVAIL upside ✦ Reap in staking rewards ✦ Ear
✨ 🪂 My Post-Airdrop Strategy for AVAIL 🪂 ✨ ✦ Bridge $AVAIL to Ethereum ✦ Stake $AVAIL on @deq_fi ✦ Receive $stAVAIL on Ethereum ✦ Hold $stAVAIL in EVM wallet to deploy in DeFi (soon) This strategy allows me to: ✦ Retain exposure to $AVAIL upside ✦ Reap in staking rewards ✦ Ear
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