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$TIA

22 pieces · Nov 2023 to Jul 2025 · 1 flagship

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L1/L220 Market structure4 ZK3 DeFi3 Ethereum2 Solana1

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Coverage per year

42023

162024

22025

Price and coverage

Celestia $TIA

Calls: 2 bullish1 bearish
Since first call, bullish: −94%
Since latest call, bearish: −65%
Now: $0.549

bullish thesis bearish thesis coverage, no call map, list or mentionShow all 22 piecesCalls onlyWeekly closes in USD, log scale, as of 23 Oct 2026. Call figures turn cyan when the price moved the way the call pointed. Each marker links to its piece.

Start here · the strongest pieces on $TIA

Thesis24 Jun 2025Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationDissects Celestia's token design: Series A at $0.0955 vs public launch at $2.29-$2.50, an 80/20 insider split, large unlocks, 8% inflation and a staking-reward loophole Polychain used to sell early. Contrasts it with HYPE's no-insider, buyback model.Thesis21 Dec 2023Modular thesis and DA layers: Celestia vs Avail with DAS and ZK proofsRecaps the modular thesis and argues DA layers must cut fees for rollups to compete with Solana. Compares Celestia's fraud proof DAS with Avail's KZG validity proofs and expects Celestia to adopt ZK.Thesis11 Aug 2024AVAIL undervalued versus TIA: DA design, valuation and unlock timingArgues AVAIL at $1.4B FDV is undervalued mid-term versus TIA at roughly 5x its valuation. Cites Avail's ZK-validity design, the Nexus and Fusion roadmap, and TIA's Nov 2 cliff versus a year without AVAIL investor unlocks.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2025 2

06 Jul 2025Celestia 'Proof of Governance' proposal: 20x lower inflation and no stakingSummarizes a proposal to cut TIA inflation from ~5% to ~0.25%, eliminate staking with governance electing validators, and burn fees and MEV, making TIA its own LST. Argues PoS security is largely delegated and Celestia overpays for security by about 20x.BreakdownL1/L2Market structure

24 Jun 2025Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationDissects Celestia's token design: Series A at $0.0955 vs public launch at $2.29-$2.50, an 80/20 insider split, large unlocks, 8% inflation and a staking-reward loophole Polychain used to sell early. Contrasts it with HYPE's no-insider, buyback model.ThesisMarket structureL1/L2

2024 16

13 Dec 2024NFT market update: ai16z partner NFTs, Vana, Celestine Sloths floorsFloor price update across AI-agent and airdrop-linked NFT collections, with context on each: ai16z partner NFTs, Vana after the Binance Launchpool news, a Celestine Sloths governance fight and the Eclipse genesis collection.DataSolanaOther

11 Oct 2024Initia mainnet and what it means for Celestia's ecosystemArgues Initia mainnet matters for Celestia because Celestia has no L1 execution, so Initia enables an ecosystem of app and vertical-specific execution layers native to it. TIA would fuel that economy.ThesisL1/L2

04 Oct 2024Celestia vs EigenDA: different missions, not direct competitorsArgues Celestia is an L1 building a native rollup ecosystem while EigenDA is an off-chain DA service for Ethereum rollups. They overlap only in serving DA to Ethereum-settling rollups, which is EigenDA's sole focus.ExplainerL1/L2

28 Sep 2024Celestia ecosystem Q4 2024: rollups and infra launching mainnets and tokensLists the Celestia-based rollups, frameworks and interop projects set for Q4 mainnet and token launches. Argues this turns Celestia, which has no smart contracts, into a cohesive app ecosystem and adds utility for TIA as its backbone asset.MapL1/L2

15 Sep 2024TIA short funding and the October unlock: why shorts may get squeezedArgues crowded TIA shorts paying extreme funding ahead of the late-October unlock will face less sell pressure than expected, and a squeeze could revive interest as ecosystem projects launch.Market takeMarket structureL1/L2

13 Sep 2024EigenDA at 15 MB/s: hyperscale rollups and Ethereum competitivenessArgues EigenDA, the first horizontally scalable DA system, makes Ethereum competitive with alt L1s. It already handles raw data from 15+ chains at 15 MB/s, secured by over $9B in crypto-economic capital.Market takeEthereumL1/L2

10 Sep 2024Celestia roadmap vs the end-of-October TIA unlockQuestions whether Celestia's roadmap is enough to offset the end-of-October TIA unlock, which he says adds roughly 80% of current circulating supply. Unsure about TIA price action versus majors and new token launches.Market takeL1/L2

13 Aug 2024Celestine Sloths as an airdrop play versus staking TIALists potential airdrops for the 2,500 Celestine Sloths. Argues that with 420k+ TIA stakers averaging 1.4k TIA, holding the NFT is a better airdrop play than staking TIA.Market takeL1/L2

12 Aug 2024Celestia Lemongrass upgrade: 1-click TIA and Blobstream ZeroLemongrass enables 1-click native TIA on interwoven rollups and adds interchain accounts. CIP-20 deprecates the old Blobstream module in favor of zk light clients such as RISC Zero's Blobstream Zero.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

11 Aug 2024AVAIL undervalued versus TIA: DA design, valuation and unlock timingArgues AVAIL at $1.4B FDV is undervalued mid-term versus TIA at roughly 5x its valuation. Cites Avail's ZK-validity design, the Nexus and Fusion roadmap, and TIA's Nov 2 cliff versus a year without AVAIL investor unlocks.ThesisL1/L2

10 Aug 2024Celestia TIA Nov 2 unlock: cliff and linear vesting breakdownA cliff unlock on Nov 2 adds over 85% of current market cap (about $1B) to circulation: Series A and B 65.01M, Seed 52.47M and core contributors 58.08M TIA. Daily linear vesting then releases millions of dollars per day.DataL1/L2

09 Aug 2024TIA staking stats: 72% of circulating supply staked, 420k delegators72% of circulating TIA is staked by 420k delegators across 550k+ delegations, averaging 1.4k TIA ($8k), per SmartStake. He expects staking-based airdrops to be heavily diluted and prefers Sloth NFTs and light nodes.DataL1/L2

19 Jul 2024AVAIL launch valuation scenarios: $3B-$5B FDV and airdrop dynamicsExpects AVAIL to land at $3B-$5B FDV ($0.3-$0.5 on 10B supply), using TIA at over $6B FDV as the peer. 354,605 wallets share 600M AVAIL; sees a possible dip to $2B-$3B FDV before a run if the staking-airdrop narrative plays out.Market takeL1/L2DeFi

17 Jul 2024Drop: Lido-backed cross-chain liquid staking on NeutronExplains Drop, a liquid staking protocol on Neutron using IBC Interchain Transactions and Queries to manage remote delegations, plus its Lido Alliance ties around wstETH. Argues it can unlock liquidity for ATOM and TIA.ExplainerDeFi

09 May 2024Narrative speculation comes in waves: why a second TIA wave is likelyArgues narrative speculation has a first hype wave and a larger second wave driven by technical innovation, using TIA as the example after it halved from its $20 pump. Expects a second wave as the Celestia ecosystem matures and modular airdrops land.Market takeL1/L2Market structure

21 Apr 2024Avail beyond DA: Nexus, Fusion and a $5B-$10B FDV callWalks through Avail's three stages: validity-proof DA with light-client sampling, Nexus proof aggregation and shared sequencing, and Fusion multi-asset security. Expects AVAIL to trade at $5B-$10B FDV quickly, using TIA as the comparable.ThesisL1/L2

2023 4

21 Dec 2023Modular thesis and DA layers: Celestia vs Avail with DAS and ZK proofsRecaps the modular thesis and argues DA layers must cut fees for rollups to compete with Solana. Compares Celestia's fraud proof DAS with Avail's KZG validity proofs and expects Celestia to adopt ZK.ThesisL1/L2Ethereum

06 Dec 2023Manta Pacific integrates Celestia DA ahead of mainnet betaExplains Manta Pacific's move from posting data to Ethereum to Celestia with Blobstream attestations, which separates execution, settlement and DA, cuts fees and precedes the Polygon CDK zkEVM transition.BreakdownL1/L2ZK

12 Nov 2023Manta Pacific October update: TVL growth, Manta Fest and November integrationsUpdate on Manta Pacific: TVL grew from USD 2.6M to USD 12.7M in October (338% MoM) and passed USD 24.5M, with Manta Fest, the zkEVM roadmap and new integrations such as TIA via Hyperlane Nexus.DataL1/L2DeFi

02 Nov 2023Celestium design: Starknet L3 with Celestia DA, cost components and trade-offsExplores an L3 rollup on Starknet with DA on Celestia. Settlement on Starknet cuts proof verification costs, while main costs are verification, Celestia DA and bridging attestations. Suits gaming and perps but lacks a native bridge.ExplainerL1/L2ZK

Often covered with

Celestia145 Avail39 Celestine Sloths5 Eclipse28 Initia10 EigenDA60 RISC Zero53 Polygon29

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