CPI preview: headline vs core expectations ahead of FOMC
Quote222 words
Previews the August CPI release: headline forecast to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY, down from 2.9%, while core stays at 3.2% YoY. Notes how this could influence the Sept 18 FOMC decision.
Key claims
Headline CPI forecast 2.6% YoY vs 2.9% in July
Core CPI forecast steady at 3.2% YoY
FOMC decision on 18 Sept
๐๐ฃ๐ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ in the US is dropping today and is highly anticipated ahead of the FOMC meeting next week and the first expected rate cuts since March 2022.
๐ง๐;๐๐ฅ ๐ผ๐ป ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ ๐ฒ๐
๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐. โคต๏ธ
โค ๐ ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐น๐ ๐๐ฃ๐ (๐๐ผ๐ป๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฒ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐
): ๐ณ๐๐พ ๐๐พ๐บ๐ฝ๐
๐๐๐พ ๐ข๐ฏ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐๐๐พ๐ผ๐บ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐พ ๐ป๐ ๐ข.๐ค% ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐๐๐พ ๐๐บ๐๐พ ๐บ๐ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐
๐. ๐ณ๐๐๐ ๐๐พ๐บ๐๐๐๐พ ๐๐๐ผ๐
๐๐ฝ๐พ๐ ๐บ๐
๐
๐๐๐พ๐๐, ๐๐๐ผ๐ ๐บ๐ ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฝ ๐บ๐๐ฝ ๐พ๐๐พ๐๐๐.
โค ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฃ๐ (๐ฒ๐
๐ฐ๐น๐๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ณ๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด๐): ๐ข๐๐๐พ ๐ข๐ฏ๐จ, ๐๐๐๐ผ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐พ ๐๐๐๐พ ๐๐๐
๐บ๐๐๐
๐พ ๐ผ๐บ๐๐พ๐๐๐๐๐พ๐ ๐๐ฟ ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฝ ๐บ๐๐ฝ ๐พ๐๐พ๐๐๐, ๐๐ ๐บ๐
๐๐ ๐พ๐๐๐พ๐ผ๐๐พ๐ฝ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐พ ๐ป๐ ๐ข.๐ค% ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐๐บ๐๐ผ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐พ ๐๐๐๐พ ๐๐พ๐พ๐ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐
๐.
โค ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ-๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ฃ๐: ๐ฎ๐ ๐บ ๐๐พ๐บ๐๐
๐ ๐ป๐บ๐๐๐, ๐๐พ๐บ๐ฝ๐
๐๐๐พ ๐ข๐ฏ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐๐๐พ๐ผ๐บ๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ผ๐๐พ๐บ๐๐พ ๐ป๐ ๐ค.๐จ% ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐๐
๐๐๐๐๐
๐ ๐
๐๐๐พ๐ ๐๐๐บ๐ ๐๐๐พ ๐ค.๐ซ% ๐๐๐ผ๐๐พ๐บ๐๐พ ๐๐พ๐พ๐ ๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐
๐. ๐ณ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฝ๐๐ผ๐บ๐๐พ๐ ๐บ ๐ฟ๐๐๐๐๐พ๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐
๐๐๐ ๐๐ฟ ๐๐๐ฟ๐
๐บ๐๐๐๐๐บ๐๐ ๐๐๐พ๐๐๐๐๐พ๐.
โค ๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ-๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฃ๐: ๐ณ๐๐พ ๐ฟ๐๐๐พ๐ผ๐บ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐๐พ๐บ๐-๐๐๐พ๐-๐๐พ๐บ๐ ๐ผ๐๐๐พ ๐ข๐ฏ๐จ ๐๐พ๐๐บ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐พ๐บ๐ฝ๐ ๐บ๐ ๐ฅ.๐ค%, ๐๐๐ผ๐๐บ๐๐๐พ๐ฝ ๐ฟ๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐๐
๐'๐ ๐ฟ๐๐๐๐๐พ, ๐๐พ๐ฟ๐
๐พ๐ผ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐พ๐๐๐๐๐๐พ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฝ๐พ๐๐
๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐
๐บ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐พ ๐พ๐ผ๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ฝ๐พ๐๐๐๐๐พ ๐๐๐พ ๐๐๐ฝ๐พ๐๐บ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐พ ๐ป๐๐๐บ๐ฝ๐พ๐ ๐ข๐ฏ๐จ.
In summary, inflation appears to be moderating, with both headline and core CPI showing stable month-to-month increases.
Year-over-year, headline inflation is forecast to decelerate, while core inflation remains more persistent.
This could influence the Fed's monetary policy decision on the 18th of September, as it weighs the cooling inflation trends against the still-elevated core numbers.
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
CPI for August 2024 is projected to rise 2.6% YoY (2.9% in July). If this holds true, it will be the smallest YoY increase since March 2021 (where it also was 2.6%). After today's CPI data drop (8:30 ET), the next events to watch are: โค 12 Sep: PPI Data Release โค 18 Sep: FOMC
CPI for August 2024 is projected to rise 2.6% YoY (2.9% in July). If this holds true, it will be the smallest YoY increase since March 2021 (where it also was 2.6%). After today's CPI data drop (8:30 ET), the next events to watch are: โค 12 Sep: PPI Data Release โค 18 Sep: FOMC
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