ETFs and ETH structural demand: supply math behind the 2.15x absorption
Quote195 words
Summarizes an A1 analysis: ETH issues 2,640 per day with 0.55% inflation and net issuance of 66,561 ETH over 30 days, while ETF inflows of 143,000 ETH absorbed 2.15x. Price impact needs seller exhaustion and depends on holder behavior and L2 burn dilution.
Key claims
Daily issuance 2,640 ETH ($7.3M), 0.55% annual inflation
30-day net issuance 66,561 ETH vs 143,000 ETH ETF inflows
L2 growth lowers ETH burn
Great piece by @0xavarek how ETFs impact $ETH's structural demand regime.
This data-driven analysis examines the interplay between Ethereum's supply mechanics and ETF inflows, exploring how these dynamics combine to generate structural price pressure.
Key takeaways:
- Ethereum issues 2,640 ETH daily ($7.3M), with 0.55% annual inflation rate post-merge
- Burns removed 6,382 ETH (30-day), resulting in net issuance of just 66,561 ETH
- Spot ETF inflows totaled 143,000 ETH (30-day), absorbing 2.15x net issuance and removing 76,000+ ETH from liquid supply
- ETF buys occur on secondary markets; price impact requires seller exhaustion, not just flow imbalance
- Validators receive issuance but aren't forced to sell. Actual float impact depends on holder behavior across all cohorts
- L2 growth reduces ETH burn since they retain fees, only burning on mainnet settlement
- Many ETFs still accumulating; unclear how much demand is structural vs opportunistic
- Ultra-low issuance + persistent institutional flows + potential seller exhaustion = increasingly reflexive price dynamics
- ETFs mark a structural demand regime shift, though repricing requires sustained flows and supportive macro conditions
Full article below! 👇
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What came next · since 12 Jul 2025
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Since then
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