Signals on Citrea: range-based BTC prediction market with CLMSR
Quote270 words
Explains how Signals replaces binary yes/no price markets with user-chosen price ranges priced via a Continuous-Outcome Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule. Pools all ranges into one liquidity curve that shows a continuous probability distribution; built on Citrea, the first Bitcoin ZK rollup.
Key claims
Binary strike markets fragment liquidity across many price levels
CLMSR aggregates ranges into a single pool and probability curve
Signals is live on the Citrea testnet
"There are no apps on Bitcoin"
WRONG!
Study @citrea_xyz anon, which is the first ZK rollup turning Bitcoin into a programmable base layer for DeFi and consumer apps.
Let me introduce an interesting example I recently came across:
@signalswtf is a decentralized prediction market focused specifically on the price of $BTC.
Its primary innovation is moving away from traditional binary (yes/no) outcomes, instead allowing users to predict that the price will fall within a specific range of their choosing (e.g., "$68,500 - $70,000").
This solves a real problem as traditional prediction markets are inefficient for continuous variables like price. Their binary yes/no structure leads to:
➤ Fragmented Liquidity: Capital is split inefficiently across many separate, discrete price strike markets (e.g., markets for >$70k, >$71k, >$72k, etc.).
➤ Incomplete Market View: Isolated odds for individual price points make it difficult to understand the overall market sentiment and probability distributions.
To enable range-based predictions, Signals introduces a novel onchain mechanism called the "Continuous-Outcome Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule" a.k.a. "CLMSR".
The unique model is an extension of traditional market scoring rules but is designed to handle continuous outcomes.
It works by aggregating all user-defined price ranges into a single, unified liquidity pool, which is then represented as a continuous probability curve.
This curve provides a clear, real-time visualization of the collective market's belief about where Bitcoin's price will land, providing valuable market intel beyond just serving as a platform for speculation.
Built on Citrea.
New to Citrea?
Check my article below for a crash course.
Signals is live on the Citrea testnet too.
If you want to try @signalswtf yourself, go here: beta.signals.wtf
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
t.co/RytNQrTnR2
t.co/RytNQrTnR2
2 images on X
How the covered assets moved · since 01 Sep 2025
Prices as of 23 Oct 2026This explainer walks through how things work without making a call on the token, so price moves since publication are shown as market context.
Mentioned for context
Since then
No follow-up pieces on this subject yet. This is the latest take.
Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish thesis is read as a call; explainers, maps and mentions are context. Not financial advice.