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$BTC

52 pieces · Jul 2021 to Oct 2026 · 8 flagship

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Bitcoin36 DeFi16 Macro10 ZK10 L1/L29 Ethereum6

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Bitcoin $BTC

Calls: 1 bullish
Since first call, bullish: +28%
Now: $81,748

bullish thesis bearish thesis coverage, no call map, list or mentionWeekly closes in USD, log scale, as of 23 Oct 2026. Call figures turn cyan when the price moved the way the call pointed. Each marker links to its piece.

Start here · the strongest pieces on $BTC

Thesis17 Oct 2024Is EIGEN undervalued? Intersubjective security and valuation mathExplains why EIGEN sold off, how its intersubjective forking security and dual-token design work, then values it with a PE-100 model. Concludes EIGEN is massively undervalued, with $20B plausible if AVSs reach a $5B to $10B combined market cap.Explainer12 Jan 2024Chainway: a sovereign ZK rollup secured by Bitcoin as its DA layerExplains how Chainway builds an EVM ZK rollup on Bitcoin using the Sovereign SDK, Ordinals-style inscriptions, recursive proofs and forced inclusion to inherit Bitcoin's liveness, censorship and reorg resistance. Flags slow block times and no DAS as caveats.Article23 Jul 2025Citrea deep dive: unlocking Bitcoin's $1.3T dormant liquidity with a ZK rollupAnalyzes Citrea, the first ZK rollup on Bitcoin, against wrapped tokens, federated bridges, sidechains and client-side validation. Covers its zkEVM, BitVM-based Clementine bridge, Bitcoin data availability, bApps ecosystem and risks.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2026 10

12 Oct 2026Quantum and post-quantum map: PQ crypto assets by readinessMap of crypto assets by PQ readiness: opt-in PQ on mainnet (NEAR, ALGO, CKB), PQ-native chains (QRL, QTC, ABEL) and announced or draft (BTC, ETH, TRX, ZEC, SUI), with mcap, moves and ATH distance. Flags thin volume and the lattice vs hash-based debate.MapQuantumBitcoinEthereum

10 Oct 2026Bunker mode explained: AI, ECDSA risk and 6.26M exposed BTCJustin Drake warned ECDSA could break within months through AI-driven math; 6.26M BTC (31.2% of supply) sits in addresses with exposed keys. Cryptographers pushed back; Vitalik noted lattice schemes share the structured-math risk, favoring hash-based signatures.ExplainerQuantumBitcoinEthereum

05 Aug 2026Why the crypto bottom gets engineered: long-end yields, Fed and catalystsBuilds on rektdiomedes and Ansem: hot 10yr and 30yr yields could force Treasury action, and Trump has an incentive to pump markets before midterms. Cites capitulation signals, onchain revival, Clarity Act odds and cheaper builds from AI as reasons the setup is better than priced.Market takeMacroRegulationMarket structure

02 Mar 2026DeFi In Five: S&P AAA onchain fund, Aave $1T loans, AgentFi near $500MDigest: S&P Global rated an onchain treasury fund AAA, Aave passed $1T cumulative loans, tokenized stocks hit $1B market cap, Virtuals agentic GDP nears $500M, and Lombard, Sentora and Veda stack 3.3% APY on BTC.Market takeDeFiTokenized stocksAI

02 Mar 2026Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold, zero bought BitcoinCentral banks bought 863t of gold in 2025 and none bought Bitcoin, while gold rallied 25% to a $5,595 ATH and Bitcoin halved. Says the better question is which risk factors drive BTC returns now.DataBitcoinMacro

01 Mar 2026OVERWATCH: real-time Iran conflict command centerSingle-screen dashboard with 1,000+ news articles, 91 API connections, an OSINT theater map, BTC, ETH and gold tickers and Grok SITREP briefings, built largely autonomously with Perplexity Computer as a side experiment.Build logToolingMacro

12 Feb 2026MSTR: neither death spiral nor safe havenArgues the old Strategy bull case is over now IBIT holds 767k BTC without governance risk, yet the debt stack is manageable: converts mature 2028 and $2.25B cash covers 2.5+ years. The gap is $888M in annual obligations against $477M software revenue.Market takeBitcoinMarket structure

29 Jan 2026Bitcoin as regime change insurance, not a debasement hedgeArgues 2025 delivered orderly debasement, which is gold's home turf, so Bitcoin lagged. Its thesis is conditional on chaotic scenarios such as capital controls or sovereign failures that did not occur.ThesisBitcoinMacro

22 Jan 2026Greenland tariffs test: Bitcoin is a high-beta macro asset, not digital goldSummarises an A1 Research study of Bitcoin through the Greenland tariff event: it captured downside without upside while equities recovered and gold held gains. Concludes BTC trades with risk appetite.DataBitcoinMacro

22 Jan 2026Why the US intervention in Venezuela did not move cryptoSummarises an A1 Research piece: the operation left dollar strength, rates, risk appetite and liquidity unchanged, unlike Russia 2022. Post-ETF Bitcoin behaves as a macro asset.DataMacroBitcoin

2025 9

28 Dec 2025Why 'cryptocurrencies' is the wrong label: digital assets as an asset classArgues the term implies digital fiat competitors when the sector spans commodity-like assets, reserve assets, equity-like tokens with cash flows, memecoins, stablecoins and RWAs. Institutional capital needs a clear taxonomy.ThesisMarket structureStablecoinsBitcoin

01 Sep 2025Signals on Citrea: range-based BTC prediction market with CLMSRExplains how Signals replaces binary yes/no price markets with user-chosen price ranges priced via a Continuous-Outcome Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule. Pools all ranges into one liquidity curve that shows a continuous probability distribution; built on Citrea, the first Bitcoin ZK rollup.ExplainerBitcoinPrediction marketsZK

29 Jul 2025August as the start of AI season: GPT-5, Kaito campaigns and rate cutsArgues GPT-5 will pull attention back to crypto x AI while six projects with live Kaito campaigns and upcoming TGEs drive CT attention. Rate cuts would be the last accelerator for an altseason led by DeAI and agents.Market takeAIMacro

23 Jul 2025Citrea TL;DR: Bitcoin's first ZK rollup and the bApps ecosystemSummarizes his Citrea article: the first Bitcoin ZK rollup brings EVM programmability using RiscZero, BitVM and the Clementine 1-of-N bridge, with non-custodial bApps whose fees settle on Bitcoin L1.BreakdownBitcoinZKL1/L2

23 Jul 2025Citrea deep dive: unlocking Bitcoin's $1.3T dormant liquidity with a ZK rollupAnalyzes Citrea, the first ZK rollup on Bitcoin, against wrapped tokens, federated bridges, sidechains and client-side validation. Covers its zkEVM, BitVM-based Clementine bridge, Bitcoin data availability, bApps ecosystem and risks.ArticleBitcoinZKL1/L2

23 Jul 2025The speculation-only era in crypto is ending: value accrual and revenue winArgues the revenue meta signals maturation: long-term winners will be tokens with real value accrual to revenue-generating businesses, plus execution-layer tokens with organic demand. Corporates and ETFs buy majors, retail buys old alts and memes, and VC-captured 9-10 figure launches won't last.ThesisMarket structureDeFi

11 Jul 2025Why RWA tokenization hasn't scaled yet and what is unblocking itRWAs are held back by missing high-performance DeFi infra, weak oracle infra and regulatory ambiguity. All three are improving through verifiable CLOBs, modular oracles like eOracle, the Genius Act and treasury adoption, with stablecoins already the largest onchain RWA class.ThesisRWADeFiMarket structure

10 Jul 2025Citrea: Bitcoin's first ZK rollup and the BitVM-based Clementine bridgeCitrea batches transactions off-chain, proves them with RISC Zero's zkVM and Boundless, and inscribes proofs and state diffs on Bitcoin, enabling EVM contracts without protocol changes. The Clementine bridge uses BitVM for 1-of-N trust-minimized BTC bridging.BreakdownBitcoinZK

06 Jun 2025Bitcoin Suisse on institutional crypto strategy: takeaways from Crypto ValleyNotes from an institutional strategy talk: BTC still in bull territory with 120k possible, altseason will differ, buybacks help P/S ratios, and quantum resistance and the security budget are the elephant in the room. A private holder near 3% of supply could undermine BTC's safe haven status.Market takeBitcoinMacroMarket structure

2024 24

17 Oct 2024Is EIGEN undervalued? Intersubjective security and valuation mathExplains why EIGEN sold off, how its intersubjective forking security and dual-token design work, then values it with a PE-100 model. Concludes EIGEN is massively undervalued, with $20B plausible if AVSs reach a $5B to $10B combined market cap.ThesisEthereumDeFi

08 Oct 2024Why io.net ahead of Coinbase listing: 300k GPUs, $15k daily GMVBull case for IO ahead of its Coinbase listing: a GPU cloud market projected above $120B by 2032, over 300k verified GPUs and early traction. IO sits below $1.5B FDV and has beaten BTC, ETH and SOL over 7 and 30 days.ThesisDePINAI

24 Sep 2024Bitcoin season airdrop strategy: YT-SolvBTC.BBN (Corn) on PendleWalks through a three-in-one airdrop farming strategy using Pendle YTs on SolvBTC.BBN (Corn), stacking Solv XP, Corn Kernel and Babylon points with leverage. Notes the implied APY of up to 500% depends on FDV scenarios.BreakdownBitcoinDeFi

19 Sep 2024Babylon as EigenLayer for Bitcoin: BTC shared security thesisFrames Babylon as a shared security system powered by Bitcoin that could unlock idle BTC to secure PoS chains, comparable to EigenLayer but tapping the largest pool of idle capital. Points to the Redacted Research deep dive.ThesisBitcoinDeFi

13 Sep 2024EigenDA at 15 MB/s: hyperscale rollups and Ethereum competitivenessArgues EigenDA, the first horizontally scalable DA system, makes Ethereum competitive with alt L1s. It already handles raw data from 15+ chains at 15 MB/s, secured by over $9B in crypto-economic capital.Market takeEthereumL1/L2

12 Sep 2024US CPI August 2024 results and rate cut outlookBreaks down the August CPI print and what it means for the Fed. Inflation is cooling, the market expects a 25bps cut, and the author sees a bright Uptober outlook but high volatility.DataMacro

10 Sep 2024FTM outperforms majors ahead of the Sonic migrationFTM is up over 14% in 24h and 38% in 30 days versus BTC -7%, ETH -11% and SOL -15%. Cites the Sonic testnet (720ms finality), account abstraction, gas monetization, the airdrop and the FTM to S migration.Market takeL1/L2

04 Sep 2024Macro setup into the Sept 2024 FOMC: rate cut odds and the 2007 parallelWalks through the key US data week and the 2007 rate-cut parallel. Cites CME odds of 59% for 25 bps and 41% for 50 bps, expects volatility but a 25 bps cut, and flags idle stablecoin liquidity as potential firepower.Market takeMacro

03 Sep 2024Babylon vs EigenLayer: why they are not direct competitorsArgues Babylon is a Cosmos PoS chain lending BTC security to other PoS chains, less general than EigenLayer's programmable trust platform. Expects both to coexist with different capital pools; EigenLayer holds about $12B and is unlikely to add foreign assets soon.ThesisBitcoinEthereumDeFi

02 Sep 2024Solv Protocol data deep dive: the largest BitcoinFi protocol at over $1B TVLData-driven look at Solv: over $1B TVL four months after launch, solvBTC above 18k BTC TVL with about 80% utilization, and solvBTC.BBN filling its 250 BTC cap on Babylon. Includes a correction: real user count is roughly 378k.DataBitcoinDeFi

15 Aug 2024NEAR Bitcoin light client and chain signatures: BTC DeFi on NEARExplains the Aurora-built Bitcoin light client, relayer and NEAR chain signatures that let users deposit native BTC and sign Bitcoin transactions from a NEAR wallet without traditional bridges. Early adopters include SatoshiBridge and Allstake.ExplainerBitcoinDeFi

07 Jun 2024OP_CAT explained: Merkle trees in Bitcoin Script and trustless ZK rollupsExplains OP_CAT (concatenation) as the opcode that enables Merkle tree creation and verification in Bitcoin Script, which is the core operation needed for STARK verification. Argues this opens the door to fully trust-minimized rollups on Bitcoin without overloading the chain.ExplainerBitcoinZK

05 Jun 2024StarkWare, OP_CAT and STARKs as the path to Bitcoin L2sExplains why StarkWare funds OP_CAT research: it is the one covenant opcode that enables Merkle tree verification needed for STARK-based validity rollups on Bitcoin. Adds that STARKs are transparent and post-quantum secure, and could bring privacy to Bitcoin L2s.ThesisBitcoinZK

16 May 2024BTCfi thesis: pStake and Babylon BTC stakingArgues BitcoinFi could see parabolic growth since less than 1% of BTC's $1T+ market cap is used in DeFi, and that pStake's liquid staking expertise and Babylon partnership make it an early mover. Flags that competition will likely be fierce.ThesisBitcoinDeFi

26 Apr 2024Bitcoin ecosystem and BTC liquid staking: digest of a Persistence Labs articleBullet digest of a pSTAKE and Persistence Labs article on Bitcoin's evolution into an ecosystem: ETFs, Ordinals, sidechains and rollups, and BTC liquid staking that lets BTC secure other networks and raises capital efficiency.ExplainerBitcoinDeFi

22 Apr 2024BTC as idle security capital: Babylon and Avail FusionFrames BTC as roughly $1.4T of idle capital that Babylon can put to work securing PoS chains, and ties it to Avail Fusion adding BTC security to a rollup-centric DA base layer. Flags Ankr as a likely BTC liquid staking player.ThesisBitcoinL1/L2

21 Apr 2024RuniGun: Telegram tooling thesis for Bitcoin RunesPitches RuniGun, a Telegram bot to mint and trade Runes, as key tooling for the post-halving Runes launch. Cites a $12M LBP FDV, 80% of fees going to RNG buybacks and BananaGun's $350M valuation as the comparable. Includes a referral link.ThesisBitcoinMemecoins

16 Apr 2024Runes vs BRC-20: why Runes could win, and the RuniGun betExplains Runes as a fungible OP_RETURN token standard with efficiency, UTXO and front-running advantages over BRC-20, then pitches RuniGun as the tooling play. Details fees and tokenomics and ends with a referral link.ThesisBitcoinMemecoins

19 Mar 2024Ankr as the liquid staking layer for Bitcoin via BabylonThesis that Ankr will issue LSTs for BTC staked through Babylon, mirroring ether.fi and Kelp on EigenLayer, with BTC's $1.2T mostly idle market cap as the addressable base. Compares Ankr's FDV with EtherFi and Lido.ThesisBitcoinDeFi

14 Mar 2024Persistence adopts Babylon Bitcoin staking for Cosmos restakingExplains Persistence adding BTC as a restakable asset via Babylon, extending its LST restaking model. Repeats the 76.1% bonded ratio argument and frames Babylon as EigenLayer for Bitcoin.BreakdownBitcoinDeFi

12 Mar 2024Chainflip full launch: JIT AMM for native cross-chain swapsDescribes Chainflip's app-specific L1 with 150 validators and a just-in-time AMM for native BTC, ETH and DOT swaps without wrapped assets, with integrated frontends and a roadmap including SOL swaps and Arbitrum.BreakdownDeFiL1/L2

07 Feb 2024Citrea: a Bitcoin ZK rollup using RISC Zero and BitVMExplains Citrea's design: a Type 2 zkEVM in a STARK-based zkVM, proofs and state diffs inscribed on Bitcoin, BitVM-based optimistic verification, forced transactions for censorship resistance and reorg resistance after 6 confirmations.ExplainerBitcoinZKL1/L2

13 Jan 2024Babylon: Bitcoin staking as EigenLayer-style security sharing for PoS chainsExplains Babylon's remote staking: BTC is locked in Bitcoin scripts and slashed for violations on consumer PoS chains, with Babylon acting as an IBC control plane. Contrasts it with EigenLayer, since Bitcoin has no smart contracts for slashing.ExplainerBitcoinDeFi

12 Jan 2024Chainway: a sovereign ZK rollup secured by Bitcoin as its DA layerExplains how Chainway builds an EVM ZK rollup on Bitcoin using the Sovereign SDK, Ordinals-style inscriptions, recursive proofs and forced inclusion to inherit Bitcoin's liveness, censorship and reorg resistance. Flags slow block times and no DAS as caveats.ExplainerBitcoinZKL1/L2

2023 4

29 Aug 2023Grayscale beats the SEC: what the ruling means for spot Bitcoin ETFsExplains the DC appeals court ruling that the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale's conversion given approved futures ETPs. The ruling only forces a re-review, with a 45-day appeal window and seven spot BTC ETF deadlines due within 5 days.ExplainerRegulationBitcoin

04 Jul 2023Bitcoin Suisse Fee Follows Function: Bitcoin security budget and zk rollupsSummarizes the Bitcoin Suisse report on Bitcoin's long-term security budget. Fees must replace block rewards, Ordinals and BRC20 showed fee demand near block rewards, and a zk rollup could add use cases and a cash-flow multiple.BreakdownBitcoinZK

27 May 2023Binance Research on BRC-20 tokens: what it means for BitcoinSummary of Binance Research's BRC-20 primer: an experimental token standard on Ordinals without smart contract capabilities that showed demand for Bitcoin blockspace but congested the mempool and raised fees.ExplainerBitcoin

07 Jan 2023Private ECDSA verification with zk proofs for anonymous credentialsFlags zk verification of ECDSA signatures as a big unlock, enabling anonymous credentials that work with existing Ethereum addresses. ECDSA is the signature scheme underlying ETH and BTC.Market takeZKPrivacyEthereum

2022 4

28 Dec 2022ChatGPT-built BTC trading bot: random forest signals and Kelly sizingDescribes building a BTC/USDT trading bot in a few hours with ChatGPT. A random forest uses MA, STD, RSI, MACD, stochastic, liquidity, order flow, news and social indicators, and sizes trades with the Kelly criterion.Build logToolingAIBitcoin

13 May 2022Bitcoin realized price as a macro bottom indicatorExplains realized price as the average cost basis of all unspent BTC. BTC falling below it has historically marked macro bottoms, shown with a cohort-based chart.DataBitcoin

12 May 2022Terra UST collapse: attack timeline, death spiral and what is salvageableExplains how the LUNA/UST mint-redeem design enabled a death spiral and reconstructs the attack: borrowed BTC, Curve 3pool liquidity pull, 350m UST dump and LFG BTC sales. Argues the base layer and its protocols are the only remaining value.BreakdownStablecoinsDeFi

24 Jan 2022Bitcoin's fee revenue problem and the long-term security budgetArgues Bitcoin's store-of-value role, lack of smart contracts and growing share of BTC wrapped on other chains limit fee revenue, threatening the miner security budget as block rewards decline. Surveys L2s and cross-chain options but doubts they suffice.ThesisBitcoin

2021 1

15 Jul 2021Hathor Network overview: merged-mined PoW, DAG and nano contractsShort feature list for Hathor: a PoW network merge-mined with BTC that combines blockchain and DAG structures, offers zero-fee instant transactions, 1-click token creation in L1 and deployable nano contracts.BreakdownL1/L2

Often covered with

Babylon21 EigenLayer110 Bitcoin6 Citrea15 Hyperliquid113 Machines & Money8 RISC Zero53 Boundless42

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