Polymarket and Hyperliquid pre-market: MON valued above MEGA
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Polymarket gives MEGA a 33% chance of an FDV above $4B one day after launch versus 76% for MON, and Hyperliquid pre-market perps value MON at $6.4B and MEGA at $4.6B. The market currently values L1s above L2s.
Key claims
Polymarket: 76% odds of MON above $4B FDV vs 33% for MEGA
MON above $6B FDV at 53% vs 15% for MEGA
HL pre-market: MON $6.4B, MEGA $4.6B
Also interesting to see that @Polymarket traders seem to value $MON significantly higher than $MEGA.
While chance for $MEGA being valued above $4B FDV one day after launch is at only 33%, for @monad it's at 76% and even a >$6B FDV is in the mix (at 53% chance with @megaeth at only 15%).
Similar picture on @HyperliquidX (with notably less of a difference tho), where based on pre-market perps currently value $MON at $6.4B and $MEGA at $4.6B.
Two of the biggest execution layer TGEs of the cycle are upon us, and the market currently seems to value L1s higher than L2s.
Do you think this will hold?
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
As expected, @megaeth community sale is already massively over-subscribed (8.2x) after only 12-13h of bidding. Meanwhile @Polymarket traders are increasingly certain that we'll breach $1B in bids committed (84% chance) and are confident that $MEGA will be valued >$2B the day aft
As expected, @megaeth community sale is already massively over-subscribed (8.2x) after only 12-13h of bidding. Meanwhile @Polymarket traders are increasingly certain that we'll breach $1B in bids committed (84% chance) and are confident that $MEGA will be valued >$2B the day aft
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What came next · since 28 Oct 2025
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This data piece reports the numbers without making a call on the token, so price moves since publication are shown as market context.
Since then
Zero has written 1 more piece on MegaETH and Monad and $MEGA and $MON since this one.
- Monad long on TxFlow: private settlement and a post-quantum roadmapBullish call on $MON
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