How a HIP-4 model prices World Cup bets and sizes positions
Quote276 words
Explains his HIP-4 edge: his own model outputs a probability per outcome and he trades only when the price is clearly off (about one in six games). He skips heavy favorites and keeps a roughly 1.5x payout floor.
Key claims
Takes roughly one in six games
Germany at 0.34 vs Ivory Coast paid +$4,743
Norway at 0.30 vs Brazil paid 3.3x
Did I just gamble my way to the 6x here?
Honestly, no.
Every match on that sheet got priced by me before I ever looked at the orderbook. Tactical matchup, squad data, form, h2h, historical performance. I run my own model for this and no, I'm not (yet) sharing the stack.
The output is a probability per outcome, and I only take a ticket when HIP-4's price is clearly off my number. That's roughly one in six games. Also why I skipped the rest.
The other half is what I don't touch: heavy favorites.
A team at 0.90 probability pays you nothing unless you size stupidly big, and stupid big on "safe" games is how you die. Switzerland vs Qatar in the opener ended 1:1. Not a coincidence it was the only Switzerland game I skipped all tournament. Exactly that trap (even tho the chronic undervaluing of the Swiss team outside of Switzerland was otherwise a very welcome opportunity in general).
My floor is roughly 1.5x. The sweet spot is lower (in terms of probabilities). A gud example is Germany at 0.34 vs Ivory Coast, where I entered after they went a goal down, just bc my numbers still had them winning that game comfortably. Paid +$4,743. Norway at 0.30 vs Brazil paid 3.3x.
So when you see me holding Switzerland at almost 4x against Argentina and think I've lost it already: it's the same trade. The model says the price is wrong. That's the whole system. And if I lose it, it's sized responsibly enough to not matter too much (value at risk there is not even part of the 18k in realized profits).
Hyperliquid.
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
Reporting back on my HIP-4 stats and the 50 hyperliquid:native to 500 hyperliquid:native mission: ➤ +$18.2k USDC realized in 21 days ➤ $3.5k stake turned into $21.7k a 6.2x on the bankroll (with two positions still open on top) ➤ 11W and 5L across 16 settled markets, leaving m
Reporting back on my HIP-4 stats and the 50 hyperliquid:native to 500 hyperliquid:native mission: ➤ +$18.2k USDC realized in 21 days ➤ $3.5k stake turned into $21.7k a 6.2x on the bankroll (with two positions still open on top) ➤ 11W and 5L across 16 settled markets, leaving m
What came next · since 11 Jul 2026
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