A1 Research 2026 outlook: tokenization, prediction markets, privacy, agents
Quote305 words
TL;DR of A1's 2026 outlook: tokenized stocks and private equity scale, stablecoin yield wars, parlays drive prediction markets, onchain credit scoring, production privacy tech, ZK prover competition and DePIN for robotics.
Key claims
Tokenized stocks at $530M could 10x
Hyperliquid buybacks $644M, 46% of industry
Zama holds 70% FHE share, Aethir revenue $100M+
2025 was wild.
But what about 2026?
In our @a1research__ outlook for 2026, our analyst @_exnihil0_ is breaking down what to expect in the months ahead.
Quick TL;DR:
- Tokenized assets poised to explode: stocks (Ondo + BackedFi) currently at $530M could 10x, private equity (Jarsy, PreStocks) will bring Anthropic/OpenAI/SpaceX exposure to the masses, private credit ($20B tokenized since 2020) continues scaling
- Stablecoin yield wars will intensify as Ethena and Neutrl tap the ~$800B basis trade market to offer yield that USDC/USDT issuers currently keep, with options strategies emerging as the next untapped source
- Prediction markets will go mainstream with parlays as the catalyst (~60% of FanDuel/DraftKings revenue comes from parlays), watch Kalshi Combos and Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal
- Undercollateralized lending will unlock institutional DeFi adoption via onchain credit scoring from 3Jane (zkTLS + VantageScore 3.0), Credora, Cred, Synnax, and Allora
- Privacy tech goes production-ready: expect Zama (70% FHE share), Phala (30K TEE nodes), Lit ($400M+ secured), Privasea (800K+ verified IDs), and Aleo ($300M raised) to gain serious traction
- ZK prover competition will resemble early BTC mining, with Succinct, Brevis, Boundless, Giza, Lagrange, and Cysic (ZK ASICs) competing for market share
- Decentralized compute will capture share from AWS (50%+ cheaper) as demand surges, with Aethir's $100M+ revenue proving the model works
- Robotics will drive massive DePIN demand for precision geolocation: Geodnet (21K+ nodes), Hivemapper (~37% global roads), and Auki's "internet for robotics" will become critical infrastructure
- Tokenomics will evolve toward sustainability: expect more Hyperliquid-style buybacks ($644M+, 46% of industry), community vetting via Legion/Echo/MetaDAO, and novel structures like Flying Tulip's yield-only spending model
- Stablecoins will become agentic money via x402 payment standard, enabling continuous payments, automated commerce, and machine-to-machine micropayments
Full report linked below! ↓
Need a reminder on what happened in 2025?
We got you covered! ↓
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What came next · since 21 Jan 2026
Since then
Zero has written 5 more pieces on A1 Research since this one.
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