Standard Reserve moon maths part 2: banker strategies over 12 months
Quote640 words
Models five banker strategies (sit, build, harvest, flip at 6, build then flip at 12) on a 0.15 ETH seat: building to 10 branches returns 2.50 ETH base, 16.2 ETH bull and 320 ETH moon. Passive seats are hurt by dilution and very sensitive to contraction share.
Key claims
Base case: build 2.50 ETH (16.7x) vs sit 0.42 ETH
Contraction from 35% to 50% of weeks cuts a passive seat from 0.42 to 0.11 ETH
Ten branches cost 36K STANDARD in licenses
$STANDARD Moon Maths Part 2 โ
My earlier scenarios tell you what the system does.
They say nothing about what you should do with your seat.
So I also ran the banker side math on the @standard_rsv scenarios from the quoted post below.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฎ๐บ๐ฒ:
- Every branch earns an equal share of daily issuance, credited to your balance at the bank
- Licenses (max 3 a day, paid in $STANDARD from that balance, burned) add branches up to 10
- Retiring a branch liquidates its share of your balance, minus that week's exit fee, and kills the branch for good
- Retire the last one and the charter burns
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ถ๐ฒ๐:
1 ) Sit: 1 branch, never touch it
2 ) Build: every earned token into licenses until you run 10, then hold
3 ) Harvest: build to 10, then retire one branch a month from month 6 and sell
4 ) Flip: build to 10, retire everything at month 6 and sell
5 ) Build, then flip at month 12
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ, ๐ญ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐, ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฌ.๐ญ๐ฑ ๐๐ง๐:
- Sit: 0.42 ETH (2.8x), nothing realized
- Build: 2.50 ETH (16.7x), nothing realized, 10 branches
- Harvest: 2.43 ETH (16.2x), 1.42 of it realized, 4 branches left
- Flip at month 6: 2.15 ETH (14.4x), all realized, charter burned
- Build, flip at 12: 2.44 ETH (16.3x), all realized, charter burned
๐๐๐น๐น ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ, ๐ญ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐, ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฌ.๐ญ๐ฑ ๐๐ง๐:
- Sit: 4.49 ETH (30x), nothing realized
- Build: 16.2 ETH (108x), nothing realized, 10 branches
- Harvest: 12.9 ETH (86x), 6.43 of it realized, 4 branches left
- Flip at month 6: 3.39 ETH (23x), all realized, charter burned
- Build, flip at 12: 15.8 ETH (105x), all realized, charter burned
๐ ๐ผ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ, ๐ญ๐ฎ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐, ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ด๐ต๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฌ.๐ญ๐ฑ ๐๐ง๐:
- Sit: 111 ETH (738x), nothing realized
- Build: 320 ETH (2,136x), nothing realized, 10 branches
- Harvest: 220 ETH (1,469x), 92 of it realized, 4 branches left
- Flip at month 6: 19.3 ETH (129x), all realized, charter burned
- Build, flip at 12: 314 ETH (2,092x), all realized, charter burned
๐ข๐ธ๐ฎ๐, ๐๐ผ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ๐๐?
1 ) Dilution is the enemy of the passive seat. If licenses keep clearing, one branch is 1/10,000 of issuance by summer. Sitting still is the one strategy the design punishes.
2 ) Building is self-funding. Ten branches cost 36K $STANDARD in licenses, all of it earned, never bought. At 3 licenses a day the race to 10 is three days for anyone whose balance can cover it.
3 ) Flipping early is the bear hedge. In the bear case (55% contraction weeks, no team ETH, public waits for the floor) retiring everything at month 6 returns 0.30 ETH vs 0.17 for building and holding, and 0.02 for sitting.
4 ) Harvest is the middle way. It realizes more than half the value by month 12 and keeps 4 branches earning. Build wins on paper, Harvest wins if you ever want the ETH.
5 ) The outcome still heavily depends on two system sliders. Move contraction from 35% to 50% of weeks and the passive seat drops from 0.42 to 0.11 ETH. Move net buying from 5% to 7% per week and it rises to 0.94. Neither of the two we can be sure about yet.
One caveat worth flagging: the model runs your seat on top of the system, so your licenses and sells do not move the price. Fine for 1 of 1,000. But the Build number is a first-mover number: if every banker builds, 10,000 branches arrive in days, not months, and everyone's share shrinks together. That crowding is what the license burn is designed to monetize.
Run your own seat, strategy and seat price on the "your bank" tab: reservelaunchmechanics.xyz
QUOTING @zerokn0wledge_
Ran the launch math on the @standard_rsv mint, then let the whitepaper mechanics run itself for 12 months. Time to talk moon math scenarios. โ Launch day numbers are the only verified ones we have rn: 100M $STANDARD sits full range in the Uniswap v4 pool that is the foundation
Ran the launch math on the @standard_rsv mint, then let the whitepaper mechanics run itself for 12 months. Time to talk moon math scenarios. โ Launch day numbers are the only verified ones we have rn: 100M $STANDARD sits full range in the Uniswap v4 pool that is the foundation
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How the covered assets moved ยท since 13 Sep 2026
Prices as of 23 Oct 2026This data piece reports the numbers without making a call on the token, so price moves since publication are shown as market context.
Covered in this piece
Since then
Zero has written 6 more pieces on $STANDARD since this one.
- Standard Reserve bull case: reflexive issuance and Robinhood Chain liquidityBullish call on $STANDARD
- Standard Reserve: adding branches after Mandate II and v1.1/v1.2 upgradesBullish call on $STANDARD
- Standard Reserve: why add branch licenses, Mandate II and the burn loopBullish call on $STANDARD
- Standard Reserve branch license auctions: 4.4M STANDARD burned in three daysBullish call on $STANDARD
Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish thesis is read as a call; explainers, maps and mentions are context. Not financial advice.