Rektober outlook: quantum, privacy, AI, robotics, DeFi, RWA and Hyperliquid
Thread732 words
Despite a weak market, he sees renewed opportunity in PQ and privacy infra, AI and robotics exposure, maturing DeFi (perps, onchain options, propAMMs), RWAs and a widening Hyperliquid ecosystem. Links his recent write-ups on each theme.
Key claims
Pre-IPO perps on Anthropic and Unitree now trade onchain
Hyperliquid and peers likely to go onshore in the US in a compliant manner soon
Metric turns custom-oracle propAMMs into an open primitive
Market hasn't been too kind in Rektober so far.
However, I'm more locked in than ever.
For a long time, I rly didn't see much (aside from Hyperliquid) that truly excited me.
That has changed:
- Quantum and AI threats made ppl think and talk about the tech again (PQ roadmaps, or e.g. @Starknet's L1 migration vote), and narrative-driven infra trades are back. Meanwhile, privacy is (finally) catching a serious bid too. From private money (e.g. @Zcash) and programmable privacy (e.g. @aztecnetwork) to private AI infra (e.g. @NEARProtocol) and confidential compute networks (e.g. @Arcium), it's another infra angle with a lot of steam. Plenty to research here, from the established narrative leaders to potential beta plays and new projects deeper down the PQ and privacy rabbit holes.
- AI (beyond the threat vector) and robotics are flourishing. Both the innovation and the appetite for exposure to these sectors are increasingly spilling over into crypto. Pre-IPO perps on AI labs like Anthropic or robotics companies like Unitree now trade onchain (even more fuel for perp DEXes like HL, Variational and co). Add AI-adjacent crypto use cases (e.g. narrative leaders @askvenice or @prlnet), crypto x robotics plays across data (e.g. @axisrobotics or @openroboto) and coordination and capital formation (incl. @codecopenflow, @peaq or @machinedotfun), plus a bunch of interesting Bittensor subnets across both lanes. Tons of things are emerging everywhere.
- DeFi is seeing innovation again while maturing at the same time. Perps, a new financial primitive that emerged from crypto, are rapidly becoming more established. There are various strong onchain venues, and Hyperliquid & co. are likely to go onshore in the US in a compliant manner soon. Onchain options (e.g. @paradex or @DeriveXYZ, and soon @Lighter_xyz) are another DeFi vertical finally gaining steam. Meanwhile, @metricxyz is turning propAMMs priced off custom oracles (great for RWAs) into an open primitive anyone can build with. And new ponzis keep things fun, from @standard_rsv (the people's onchain central bank) on Robinhood Chain to @papertrade_xyz (1000x synthetic futures) on HyperEVM.
- RWAs and tokenization have been accelerating rapidly, and it only grows from here. The DeFi infra around them keeps maturing, from perp DEXes to onchain options venues and tokenized spot markets. There is also dedicated infra for institutions (e.g. @CantonNetwork or @zksync's Prividium architecture), and public chains offer a programmable financial system that is composable by default. Things should get even more exciting here soon.
- And obviously this list wouldn't be complete without a dedicated mention of Hyperliquid. It overlaps with a lot of the above, but the house of all finance just keeps expanding. Both HIP-3 and HIP-4 (outcomes) keep growing. New deployers (from @entropyIO to @Outcomexyz) are enabling more markets, and new interfaces keep emerging (e.g. trading terminals with proprietary tech like @quotemarkets, or prediction market apps like @sharexyz). Meanwhile, @Kinetiq_xyz is launching HL's first L2, @Enter_Elysium. Adoption and revenue stay consistently strong, new revenue sources keep showing up, and the regulatory front keeps progressing. There's just so much cool stuff to look into across the board.
TL;DR:
The past year wasn't easy if you were in crypto, and frankly not very fun either. That has changed tho imo, and with it comes a lot of opportunity in the months ahead.
Luckily, this time it isn't just mostly extractive memecoins and social trading apps that skew the odds heavily toward an elite circle of influencers and insiders either. It's innovation, new primitives, use cases and narratives. In some cases probably even objectively strong fundamentals, working business models, strong revenue and sustainable value accrual, that will make the difference.
NFA ofc tho, and pls note this isn't meant to be a complete list of everything worth looking at. Just some of my personal thoughts.
To all the anons out there: stay curious, DYOR, and position accordingly.
Have a great Sunday!
Taking the opportunity to link back of some of my recent write ups here too.
Starting with the quantum/AI threats and the bunker mode debate that emerged from it
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/2108900295317356795
The quantum/PQ landscape
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/2109615972189663288
The privacy ecosystem map
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/2111078284675141716
Ethereum's ZK L2s in the age of quantum, privacy and AI
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/2111367198413566117
The most comprehensive primer on the robotics vertical by @a1research__
x.com/a1research__/status/2110733819271872719
@a1research__ WTF is @metricxyz and why should you care?
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/2110966246372229493
@a1research__ @metricxyz WTF is @prlnet and where do you trade it?
x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/2111401105577935091
@a1research__ @metricxyz @prlnet The state of Hyperliquid by @a1research__
x.com/a1research__/status/2103496904671715377