HIP-4 two months in: not a flop, outcome volume up 4x
A reply to the HIP-4 flop take: monthly outcome volume went from $11.5M in August to $45.1M in the first 23 days of October, mostly sports. Small next to Kalshi and Polymarket, but four deployers, 32 frontends and fees near $1.30 per $1k traded, in the same account as perps.
Flop is a very strong word given that permissionless HIP-4 markets are only 8 weeks old, while daily outcome volumes 5x'd its in two months imo.
Also: Hyperliquid is not Polymarket, distribution mechanics are different, and HIP-4 doesn't make HL a prediction market per se.
Let's start with the numbers (from Defillama):
- Aug: $11.5M
- Sep: $39.8M
- Oct: $45.1M in first 23 days
85%+ of it is sports (as is for most prediction markets).
The screenshot is the trade(.)xyz tab, the quietest corner of HIP-4 and makes up under 1% of daily volume.
And sure, it's still small overall too.
Under 0.3% of Kalshi + Polymarket volume. October is still below June ($74M, World Cup). And 151 of 350 live markets traded $0 in the last 24h.
But permissionless deployment is also just 2 months in.
Considering that, the metrics aren't so bad:
- 4 deployers live (Outcome, trade(.)xyz, Skew and a new one, fox), 95 registered on testnet
- 32 frontends tracked on DefiLlama, 15 already with volume
- Fees per $1k traded over the last 30d: ~$1.30 on HIP-4 vs ~$10 on Kalshi and $13.50 to $27.70 on Polymarket
And it lives in the same account as your perps and spot.
Why does that matter?
Say you're long BTC into this week's FOMC and scared of a hawkish surprise. The October FOMC market is live on HIP-4.
You buy "no cut" with the same USDC that margins your perp. If the Fed holds and BTC dumps, the payout lands in the account that just took the hit.
Thinking from a more holistic platform perspective, HIP-4 bears a lot of potential. Don't think trade(.)xyz and co will just fade that.
And distribution?
Kalshi and Polymarket have a lot of that, sure. But most of it came together through scammy influencer volumes, wash trading, etc. Hyperliquid doesn't market itself as an "investment (aka gambling) platform aggressively like that.
HIP-4 is a permissionless primitive that deployers can deploy outcome markets through, and that's happening, while builder codes enable teams to earn from building social trading/betting apps and pro terminals or integrating the markets into your wallet/app. Growth has to and imo will come organically.
So yes, it's early.
But all the pieces to the growth puzzle are already live. New deployers bring new markets, and new frontends bring users. HIP-4 will rise through the teams building on it, like HIP-3 did with @tradexyz, and outcome markets become one more key vertical in the house of all finance.
Even if it takes some time.
Hyperliquid.
Can we all admit that Hyperliquid prediction markets were a flop?
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What came next · since 25 Oct 2026
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