State of Hyperliquid: two years after the airdrop (A1 Research report)
Quote291 words27 likes
HL cleared $5.4T of perps volume, holds 57% of DEX perp OI and routed $1.28B into buybacks, yet takes only 1.7% of DEX spot and 0.1% of prediction market volume. Argues the next leg is decided in Washington via HIP-3 deployers, and still expects S3 after the US opens.
Key claims
$5.4T perps volume, 57% of DEX perp OI, $1.28B into buybacks
HIP-3 did $611B in under a year, ~70% of onchain single-stock perps
MetaMask, Trust and Phantom = 52% of top-20 builder fees over 30d
Just shipped a very extensive @a1research__ report on the State of @HyperliquidX, two years after the airdrop.
The short version:
HL has cleared $5.4T of perps volume, holds 57% of all DEX perp OI and has routed $1.28B into buybacks. Nobody has grown OI against it in 2026.
Yet, the "house of all finance" only does 1.7% of DEX spot, 0.1% of prediction markets volumes, and earns a mere 1.5% of its revenue on HyperEVM.
Why?
Bc the perp product is so good it cannibalises the rooms next to it. Nobody with a view on Micron buys MUx spot on HyperCore when the xyz stock perps next door do ~2,000x the volume of tokenized-stock spot. The lag here seems mostly structural, not a fumble.
The one room that did grow (HIP-3, $611B in under a year, ~70% of all onchain single-stock perps) runs on a franchise model: the deployer carries the listing and regulatory risk, HL keeps matching, margining and settlement.
That same model is how HL gets into the US without ever running a KYC form themselves. @krakenfx's parent @Payward is looking to become a deployer
Part of the reason why the next leg likely won't be defined by roadmap items and more product features. It will be decided in Washington.
Also in there: HLP going from making most of the market to backing ~1% of OI, wallets & trading terminals quietly becoming HL's main distribution layer (MetaMask, Trust and Phantom = 52% of top-20 builder fees last 30d), and we also investigate what has actually left the 411M HYPE reserve since genesis, and how the competitive landscape looks like.
And yes, I still think S3 happens. After the US door opens tho, not before.
NFA. DYOR.
Full report below.
QUOTING @a1research__
t.co/jGs5wFzX8Z
t.co/jGs5wFzX8Z
