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$HYPE

33 pieces · Aug 2024 to Oct 2026 · 9 flagship

Sectors

Hyperliquid28 Perps16 Market structure9 DeFi5 L1/L24 Prediction markets4

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Coverage per year

12024

152025

172026

Price and coverage

Hyperliquid $HYPE

Calls: 13 bullish
Since first call, bullish: +178%
Since latest call, bullish: +2.0%
Now: $78.45

bullish thesis bearish thesis coverage, no call map, list or mentionWeekly closes in USD, log scale, as of 23 Oct 2026. Call figures turn cyan when the price moved the way the call pointed. Each marker links to its piece.

Start here · the strongest pieces on $HYPE

Breakdown24 Jun 2025Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationDissects Celestia's token design: Series A at $0.0955 vs public launch at $2.29-$2.50, an 80/20 insider split, large unlocks, 8% inflation and a staking-reward loophole Polychain used to sell early. Contrasts it with HYPE's no-insider, buyback model.Breakdown20 Aug 2026Hyperliquid ecosystem briefing: 14 days of regulation, HIP-3/4, RWAs, revenueSeven-part recap of two weeks on Hyperliquid: US regulatory signals, xStocks and spot equities on HyperCore, HIP-3 deployer competition, HIP-4 rollout, AQAv2 yield accrual, HyperEVM and distribution via Coinbase. Concludes no other ecosystem has this level of activity.Map04 Oct 2025CLOB DEX ecosystem map: 50+ CLOB DEXes and 25+ infra enablersAnnounces A1's CLOB DEX ecosystem map, culminating research begun in June when HYPE first broke $40B FDV. Counts over 50 CLOB DEXes plus a separate map of 25+ infra enablers such as settlement layers, oracles, ZK infra and DA layers.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2026 17

22 Oct 2026Papertrade staker income collapse: $6.7M to $88K a day and PAPER scenariosStaker payouts fell from $6.7M to $88K a day between 15 and 21 Oct; ~84% of the $62M headline revenue was LP overflow, i.e. trader losses passed through, not fees. Scenario values for PAPER range from $0.0006 to $0.19.DataPerpsHyperliquidDeFi

20 Oct 2026Entropy thesis: HIP-3 deployer pricing pre-IPO and exotic perps on HyperliquidEntropy prices markets without spot (ANTH, OAI, PRL) with an oracle blending its order book and private-market data. It holds 2.2% of HIP-3 OI ($86M) and did >$1.25B in 30D volume, but growth mode limits deployer revenue to ~$49K a month.ThesisHyperliquidPerpsMarket structure

28 Sep 2026Personal top 20 crypto watchlist grouped by narrativeTwenty watchlist assets in six groups: private compute and money, decentralized AI, machine economy, perp DEX and HL ecosystem, stablecoin and institutional rails, and physical infrastructure. Each gets a one-line thesis; ARX is the main privacy bet.MapPrivacyAIPerps

25 Sep 2026State of Hyperliquid: two years after the airdrop (A1 Research report)HL cleared $5.4T of perps volume, holds 57% of DEX perp OI and routed $1.28B into buybacks, yet takes only 1.7% of DEX spot and 0.1% of prediction market volume. Argues the next leg is decided in Washington via HIP-3 deployers, and still expects S3 after the US opens.DataHyperliquidPerpsRegulation

16 Sep 2026Hyperliquid onshore: Payward and Bitnomial's permissioned HIP-3* venuePayward will deploy a permissioned HIP-3* market via CFTC-licensed Bitnomial, with NinjaTrader carrying accounts and matching onchain on HyperCore. No mainnet date and approval pending; it is a new allowlisted book without access to existing liquidity, where tradexyz holds ~98% of OI.Market takeHyperliquidRegulationPerps

24 Aug 2026Kinetiq Elysium: first HyperEVM L2 and what it means for KNTQElysium is an L2 using HYPE as gas, with much faster blocks and a free native oracle via customized L1Read so PropAMMs can quote tighter. Sequencer fees split 25/25/50 among builders, treasury and buybacks; he sees it as +EV for Hyperliquid and Kinetiq.BreakdownHyperliquidL1/L2DeFi

20 Aug 2026Hyperliquid ecosystem briefing: 14 days of regulation, HIP-3/4, RWAs, revenueSeven-part recap of two weeks on Hyperliquid: US regulatory signals, xStocks and spot equities on HyperCore, HIP-3 deployer competition, HIP-4 rollout, AQAv2 yield accrual, HyperEVM and distribution via Coinbase. Concludes no other ecosystem has this level of activity.BreakdownHyperliquidPerpsTokenized stocks

20 Jul 2026HIP-4 World Cup campaign final report: +$22.2k realized on HyperliquidResults of a 32-day HIP-4 book: a $3.5k stake grew to $25.7k with 12 wins and 7 losses across 19 markets. The Spain World Cup ticket was the biggest hit, and the 50 to 500 HYPE mission reached 428.6.DataPrediction marketsHyperliquidOther

15 Jul 2026HyperScope preview: one terminal for the whole Hyperliquid economyPreview of a Hyperliquid terminal covering perps, spot, HIP-3 and HIP-4 markets, a TA studio, a wallet analyzer with PnL and fills, a HYPE ownership map across spot, staked and EVM, and live X intel.Build logHyperliquidToolingPerps

11 Jul 2026How a HIP-4 model prices World Cup bets and sizes positionsExplains his HIP-4 edge: his own model outputs a probability per outcome and he trades only when the price is clearly off (about one in six games). He skips heavy favorites and keeps a roughly 1.5x payout floor.ExplainerPrediction marketsHyperliquid

10 Jul 2026HIP-4 World Cup results: 6.2x bankroll, 68.8% hit rateReports 21 days of HIP-4 trading: +$18.2k realized, $3.5k stake grown to $21.7k, 11 wins and 5 losses over 16 settled markets, 3.66x profit factor. HYPE mission stands at 321.4 of 500.DataPrediction marketsHyperliquid

25 Jun 2026HYPE at $60 vs BNB at $10: the Binance trajectory argumentArgues that fading HYPE at $60 is the same mistake as fading BNB at $10, framing Hyperliquid as being on the Binance trajectory and pointing to the Multicoin valuation report.ThesisHyperliquidMarket structure

25 Jun 2026Multicoin's HYPE valuation: ~$8B earnings by 2028, ~$319 targetQuotes Multicoin's report: HYPE at ~$63 trades at ~36x TTM earnings, and a base case of ~$8B annual earnings by 2028 implies ~$319 at a 20x multiple. Adds his own call for $300+.Market takeHyperliquidMarket structure

17 Jun 2026Method behind the 10-model HYPE forecast experimentExplains the setup: Grok 4.3 ran two rounds of live search to produce one shared brief, then ten models wrote theses off the same data, so the spread reflects judgment rather than search quality. Round 2 gives each model its own agentic search.OtherAIHyperliquid

17 Jun 202610 AI models forecast HYPE for 2026: median base case $91Ten LLMs given one shared research brief all came out bullish on HYPE, with base cases of $85 to $110, bull targets of $132 to $180 and median new-ATH odds of 65%. All ten flagged perp volume as the key variable.DataAIHyperliquid

16 Jun 2026Coinbase x Hyperliquid and $100 HYPE?AI-assisted scenario analysis of whether Coinbase routes perps to Hyperliquid. Confirmed: Coinbase is HL's USDC treasury deployer; any perps routing is rumor. Puts ~30% on a material catalyst that day and 65-70% on some hybrid integration within 6-12 months.ArticleHyperliquidPerpsMarket structure

05 Jan 20262025 chain revenue ranking: Solana, Hyperliquid, Tron and EthereumHyperliquid's $816M revenue topped Ethereum and Tron and every L2, with no VC funding. Ethereum's fee compression shows blobs working, while L2 revenue lags L1s by a wide margin.DataHyperliquidL1/L2Solana

2025 15

28 Dec 2025Why 'cryptocurrencies' is the wrong label: digital assets as an asset classArgues the term implies digital fiat competitors when the sector spans commodity-like assets, reserve assets, equity-like tokens with cash flows, memecoins, stablecoins and RWAs. Institutional capital needs a clear taxonomy.ThesisMarket structureStablecoinsBitcoin

31 Oct 2025Bull case for Hyperliquid: HIP-3, ETF filing, Robinhood listing and buybacksLists catalysts for HYPE: perp DEX dominance, HyperEVM growth, live HIP-3, a 21shares ETF filing, Robinhood listing, Hyperliquid-powered Butler perps, a public treasury company and Assistance Fund buybacks.ThesisHyperliquidPerps

29 Oct 2025HIP-3: Meet the Everything Exchange on HyperliquidBreaks down HIP-3 builder-deployed perps: 500,000 HYPE slashable stake, up to 50% fee share, Dutch auction slots every 31 hours. Covers the builder ecosystem, prediction market perps and HIP-3.1's halt-instead-of-slash oracle model.ArticleHyperliquidPerpsPrediction markets

14 Oct 2025Dip buys: HYPE, SOL, ZEX, CODEC, ROBA and the reasoningExplains five dip buys after the Friday crash. HYPE showed zero downtime and a working ADL, SOL has multiple catalysts, ZEX migrates to BULLET at about $17M mcap, and CODEC and ROBA are robotics bets.ThesisHyperliquidSolanaRobotics

04 Oct 2025CLOB DEX ecosystem map: 50+ CLOB DEXes and 25+ infra enablersAnnounces A1's CLOB DEX ecosystem map, culminating research begun in June when HYPE first broke $40B FDV. Counts over 50 CLOB DEXes plus a separate map of 25+ infra enablers such as settlement layers, oracles, ZK infra and DA layers.MapPerpsMarket structureDeFi

25 Sep 2025Hyperliquid over Aster, plus the CLOB challengers worth studyingArgues Aster lacks tech, UX and real users and is a paid-KOL trade, and that CEXes and VCs are fudding HYPE to rotate back cheaply. Lists credible CLOB challengers including Bullet, Paradex, Monaco and Lighter.Market takeHyperliquidPerps

07 Aug 2025Hyperliquid's Everything Exchange: HIP-3 builders bring pre-IPO and diamondsPoints to Ventuals (pre-IPO exposure) and Kaleio (diamonds) as early examples of real-world assets arriving on Hyperliquid. Says HIP-3 will enable builder-deployed perps on any market, alongside a record volume month and a growing HyperEVM.Market takeHyperliquidPerpsRWA

24 Jun 2025Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationDissects Celestia's token design: Series A at $0.0955 vs public launch at $2.29-$2.50, an 80/20 insider split, large unlocks, 8% inflation and a staking-reward loophole Polychain used to sell early. Contrasts it with HYPE's no-insider, buyback model.BreakdownMarket structureL1/L2

09 Jun 2025HyperEVM as a hidden points play: 38.88% of HYPE supply reserved for rewardsSuggests a hidden points season could be running because 38.88% of HYPE supply is allocated to future rewards, making HyperEVM usage an asymmetric opportunity with yields, memes and NFTs available.ThesisHyperliquidDeFi

04 Jun 2025Hyperliquid valuation framework: path to $100B+ on the Everything ExchangeIntroduces the A1 Research and Redacted report valuing Hyperliquid on its Everything Exchange narrative. Cites 66% perp DEX share, over $1.5T cumulative volume and millions in daily revenue as the base for a $100B+ valuation within a year.ThesisHyperliquidPerps

02 Jun 2025Hyperliquid in record May perp volume: share, fees and HYPE buybacksHyperliquid took 65.5% of record May perp DEX volume ($382.3B per DefiLlama), with $69M in 30-day fees and $64M revenue. Assistance Fund buybacks were about 2M HYPE ($56M), taking its balance near 24M HYPE.DataHyperliquidPerps

28 May 2025HYPE tokenomics and deflationary pressures as Hyperliquid becomes a base layerArgues HYPE has strong tokenomics, clear product-market fit, millions in daily revenue and no toxic VCs, and that deflationary pressures compound if Hyperliquid becomes the base layer of internet-native capital markets across perps, spot, RWAs and HyperEVM.ThesisHyperliquid

24 May 2025HYPE vs BNB: 8.85x away from flipping on circulating market capCompares BNB ($97.4B) with HYPE ($11B, FDV $33B), finding an 8.85x gap on circulating cap. HYPE has 2.5% of Binance spot volume and 12.2% of perp volume, and $1.27B in HyperEVM and HyperCore TVL vs BSC.DataHyperliquidMarket structure

23 May 2025HYPE vs Cardano: fees and TVL comparisonHYPE is still more than 2x away from flipping ADA on circulating market cap, while Hyperliquid generated 200-400x Cardano's daily fees over the past week and has 3.5x the TVL.DataHyperliquidMarket structure

22 May 2025Hyperliquid by the numbers: 64% perp share, $8.9B OI and buybacksHyperliquid has 64% of 30-day perp DEX volume, a record $8.9B open interest and 30-day revenue above $56M, over 3x Ethereum and Solana combined. Buybacks exceeded $45M and ecosystem TVL is $1.28B, up 89% MoM.DataHyperliquidPerps

2024 1

08 Aug 2024Hyperlane HYPE airdrop: protocol breakdown and value estimatesExplains Hyperlane as a permissionless interop layer and estimates the speculative HYPE airdrop. At a $500M FDV with 10-15% airdropped, he sizes it at $50M-$75M, about $625-$875 per early user wallet and $1000-$2000 per Celestine Sloth.BreakdownL1/L2DeFi

Often covered with

Hyperliquid113 trade.xyz9 Solana60 Papertrade6 Ventuals5 A1 Research39 Ethereum36 Entropy5

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