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$ARB

10 pieces · Mar 2023 to Jul 2025 · 1 flagship

Sectors

L1/L29 Ethereum4 DeFi3 Market structure1 Other1 Tooling1

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Coverage per year

92023

2024

12025

Price and coverage

Arbitrum $ARB

Calls: 3 bullish
Since first call, bullish: −89%
Since latest call, bullish: −89%
Now: $0.182

bullish thesis bearish thesis coverage, no call map, list or mentionWeekly closes in USD, log scale, as of 23 Oct 2026. Call figures turn cyan when the price moved the way the call pointed. Each marker links to its piece.

Start here · the strongest pieces on $ARB

Thesis26 Oct 2023The Stack Wars: OP Stack, Polygon CDK and Arbitrum Orbit comparedArgues builders now choose tech stacks rather than chains. Compares OP Stack (optimistic, Superchain), Polygon CDK (zkEVM with proof aggregation layer and POL security) and Arbitrum Orbit (L2s need DAO approval, L3s permissionless), with adopters.Breakdown14 Jul 2025Arbitrum Orbit growth versus ARB value accrualOrbit grew to 41 mostly app-specific chains with >$14B bridged and 9k+ devs, yet ARB is only a governance token with no staking or fee capture. Orbit chains pay gas and bond in ETH or native tokens, so ecosystem growth adds little ARB demand.Explainer19 Apr 2023Valuing protocols with Token Terminal financial statements and P/S, P/FShows how Token Terminal's standardized financial statements and P/S and P/F multiples let investors compare dApps and L2s TradFi-style, with Q2 2023 examples of apparent over and undervaluation.

Timeline · every piece, newest first

2025 1

14 Jul 2025Arbitrum Orbit growth versus ARB value accrualOrbit grew to 41 mostly app-specific chains with >$14B bridged and 9k+ devs, yet ARB is only a governance token with no staking or fee capture. Orbit chains pay gas and bond in ETH or native tokens, so ecosystem growth adds little ARB demand.BreakdownL1/L2Market structure

2023 9

08 Dec 2023Optimism RetroPGF3: how it compares to Arbitrum STIP and what it means for OPArgues RPGF3 is similar to STIP as treasury funding (30M OP, over $60M vs about $70M for STIP) but retroactive and broader, so less mercenary farming and a smaller OP-season effect. Expects retroactive DAO funding to be a 2024 narrative.Market takeL1/L2Other

26 Oct 2023The Stack Wars: OP Stack, Polygon CDK and Arbitrum Orbit comparedArgues builders now choose tech stacks rather than chains. Compares OP Stack (optimistic, Superchain), Polygon CDK (zkEVM with proof aggregation layer and POL security) and Arbitrum Orbit (L2s need DAO approval, L3s permissionless), with adopters.ThesisL1/L2Ethereum

18 Aug 2023Is Metis still an L2 play for the next cycle?Argues Metis has strong tech innovation and low valuation, but off-chain data via Memolabs, an unfinished fraud-proof system, no escape hatch and a stagnating DeFi ecosystem leave it behind other L2s. Concludes it is not currently a top L2 pick.ThesisL1/L2

15 Jul 2023Why Camelot's 9M ARB incentive request should be deniedArgues the Camelot proposal would give it an unfair advantage and pick winners through governance. L2 architecture and ecosystem funding need to be credibly neutral, and Arbitrum should not subsidize artificial growth.Market takeDeFiL1/L2

19 Apr 2023Valuing protocols with Token Terminal financial statements and P/S, P/FShows how Token Terminal's standardized financial statements and P/S and P/F multiples let investors compare dApps and L2s TradFi-style, with Q2 2023 examples of apparent over and undervaluation.ExplainerToolingDeFi

18 Apr 2023Plutus DAO: governance aggregator on Arbitrum, the Convex of ARBFrames Plutus as the Convex of Arbitrum: PLS is a bet on rising Arbitrum ecosystem governance value. Users deposit supported tokens for plsTokens with higher APR, and the goal is to become a governance blackhole on L2.BreakdownDeFiL1/L2

16 Apr 2023ARB vs OP relative valuation via market cap to TVLExplains mcap/TVL as a relative valuation tool and applies it: Arbitrum at 5 versus Optimism at 12, implying ARB may be undervalued relative to OP.DataL1/L2Ethereum

16 Apr 2023Arbitrum valuation vs Polygon and Optimism on price-to-feesUses P/F (FDV over annualized fees) from Token Terminal to argue Arbitrum still looks undervalued relative to Polygon and Optimism, and links a longer piece on ARB value.DataL1/L2Ethereum

22 Mar 2023Arbitrum Stylus: WASM smart contracts alongside the EVMIntroduces Stylus, which lets Arbitrum One and Nova run WASM programs written in Rust, C and C++ alongside the EVM, with sandboxed execution, custom precompiles and much faster compute.ExplainerEthereumL1/L2

Often covered with

Arbitrum65 Optimism61 Token Terminal9 Namada16 Polygon CDK7 zkSync41 Starknet39 Immutable5

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