AVAIL launch valuation scenarios: $3B-$5B FDV and airdrop dynamics
Quote694 words
Bullish call$AVAIL−99.5%since this piece, moved against the callHow it played out ↓Expects AVAIL to land at $3B-$5B FDV ($0.3-$0.5 on 10B supply), using TIA at over $6B FDV as the peer. 354,605 wallets share 600M AVAIL; sees a possible dip to $2B-$3B FDV before a run if the staking-airdrop narrative plays out.
Key claims
354,605 addresses eligible for 600M AVAIL
$0.5 and 15% circulating implies $750M market cap and $5B FDV
TIA at >$6B FDV and $1.2B market cap
𝗔𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹 𝗗𝗔 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴. 🍾
That means $AVAIL is coming. 🪂
354,605 wallet addresses are eligible to receive 600M $AVAIL.
Total supply is expected to be 10B $AVAIL.
Detailed tokenomics yet to be disclosed.
Initial circulating supply probably 15-20%.
$AVAIL can be staked.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀?
To answer that question, let's first have a look at what is getting people excited about @AvailProject and the upcoming launch of Avail DA mainnet.
While the narrative for Avail DA is basically the same as for Celestia, there is much more to @AvailProject's vision of unifying Web3.
That includes the proof aggregation layer Nexus (interop) and the shared security layer Fusion.
However, all of this comes into play later*.
* ) If you can't wait to learn more, check my deep dive on the Avail Trinity here: t.co/8VzgCZqtvi
For now though, @AvailProject goes to market with Avail DA, a modular data availability layer. The first of its kind that leverages a ZK proof powered data availability sampling (DAS) scheme.
It provides rollup with cheap block space to publish data to, overcoming the main scalability bottleneck that Ethereum-based rollups have been facing in recent years.
Thanks to its use of validity proofs, Avail DA improves latency and verification times compared to Celestia.
Just like Celestia though, @AvailProject features expandable block space.
What does that mean?
@AvailProject supports light clients that perform DAS to arrive at probabilistic guarantees that data is available.
With an increasing number of light clients in the network, the block size that can be securely sampled increases.
This means that @AvailProject can scale with growing light node participation.
As these will be baked into wallets and other tooling/infra down the line, this enables unprecedented scalability.
But enough about the tech for now.
With $TIA, the narrative largely evolved around the idea of stakers getting airdrops from all the emerging ecosystem projects (e.g. the rollups posting data to the abundant blobspace on the DA layer).
Unfortunately, this has not yet played out as planned for many stakers with the $TIA price collapsing in recent months.
What if $AVAIL becomes what $TIA promised to be with regards to airdrops?
The potential* is here (see visual below).
* ) Stay tuned for a write up on this from my side.
Please note that there is more to the ecosystem than what is shown on the image above. There is also various RaaS partners and infra projects in the ecosystem.
𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗹, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗼𝗸𝗲𝗻 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲?????
Ok, let's get to it anon.
$TIA still sits at >$6B FDV.
I don't know at what valuation $AVAIL will launch.
However, I do think it will find its place somewhere between $3-5B FDV.
That would put the price at $0.3-0.5, assuming a total supply of 10B $AVAIL.
At 15% circulating supply (1.5B $AVAIL) and a price of $0.5, the market cap would be $750M with a FDV of five billion dollars.
Looking at Celestia's $1.2B market cap / 6.6B$ FDV, this could make sense as an upper-bound target before the ecosystem starts to grow.
Since many airdropooooors will dump, we will def go lower before the real run starts though, so maybe we will see a temporary visit of the $2-3B FDV range.
But overall, I'm very bullish.
With the $ETH ETF going live next week, Trump speaking at the Bitcoin conference and generally the macro-economic outlook improving, the timing for the launch seems very good.
Heading towards rate cuts and a pro-crypto president in the US, we might finally enter the bullrun we deserve.
If all of this (incl. the airdrop narrative around staking) plays out, $AVAIL will definitely be one of the shiny new tokens to watch once retail attention returns.
And when the modular narrative starts to fly again, $AVAIL will be at the forefront of the action.
$TIA already saw $20B once this year.
@AvailProject still has Nexus and Fusion coming.
$10B+ FDV definitely possible this cycle.
You are not ready anon.
🧠 DYOR.
4 images on X
How the call played out · since 19 Jul 2024
Prices as of 23 Oct 2026This piece takes a view on $AVAIL, so that move is read against the call. Other assets it covers are shown as context, not as calls.
Bullish on AVAIL with a $3B to $5B FDV target, using TIA as the peer for Avail DA.
−99.5%
Moved against the call · over 2.3 years
- At publication
- $0.456
- Now
- $0.00247
- vs BTC
- −99.6%
- After 1 month
- −68%
- After 3 months
- −72%
- After 1 year
- −96%
- High since
- 0.0% 19 Jul 2024
- Low since
- −99.6% 18 Aug 2026
Show market context for 1 other asset
Mentioned for context
Since then
Zero has written 5 more pieces on Avail and $AVAIL since this one.
- Avail ecosystem: DA, Nexus and Fusion with Symbiotic restakingCovers $AVAIL
- AVAIL undervalued versus TIA: DA design, valuation and unlock timingBullish call on $AVAIL
- Post-airdrop AVAIL strategy: bridge, liquid stake on deq.fi, hold stAVAILBullish call on $AVAIL
- AVAIL launch day: stake the airdrop and valuation view at $0.15Bullish call on $AVAIL
Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish call in a thesis or market take is tracked; explainers, lists, maps and mentions are neutral context. Not financial advice.