MegaETH community sale 8.2x oversubscribed: Polymarket and HL-implied returns
Post111 words
Bullish call$MEGA−72%since listing, moved against the callHow it played out ↓MegaETH's sale was 8.2x oversubscribed after 12-13 hours, with Polymarket at 84% odds of over $1B in bids. With HL pre-market at $4.6B vs a $1B sale ceiling and a $2B implied floor, no-lockup participants might make 2-4x.
Key claims
Sale 8.2x oversubscribed after 12-13h of bidding
Polymarket: 84% chance of over $1B in bids, 82% chance of over $2B day-after FDV
HL pre-launch perps value MEGA at $4.6B vs $1B sale FDV ceiling
As expected, @megaeth community sale is already massively over-subscribed (8.2x) after only 12-13h of bidding.
Meanwhile @Polymarket traders are increasingly certain that we'll breach $1B in bids committed (84% chance) and are confident that $MEGA will be valued >$2B the day after TGE (chance at 82%, yet only 33% chance of an FDV above $4B).
On @HyperliquidX, pre-launch perps currently value $MEGA at $4.6B, which given the oversubscription (= ceiling price at $1B FDV applies to sale), and the Polymarket-implied post-TGE day floor of $2B, means that community sale participants will likely make a 2-4x on their allocations (assuming they chose the no lockup option).
How (much) are you bidding anon?
4 images on X
How the call played out · since 28 Oct 2025
Prices as of 23 Oct 2026This piece takes a view on $MEGA, so that move is read against the call.
Community sale buyers of MEGA likely make 2-4x, as pre-launch perps and Polymarket odds price it well above the sale ceiling.
−72%
Moved against the call · since it listed on 01 May 2026, 6 months after this piece
- At listing
- $0.168
- Now
- $0.0462
- vs BTC
- −74%
- After 1 month
- −62%
- After 3 months
- −78%
- High since
- 0.0% 01 May 2026
- Low since
- −82% 15 Aug 2026
Since then
Zero has written 1 more piece on MegaETH and $MEGA since this one.
Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish call in a thesis or market take is tracked; explainers, lists, maps and mentions are neutral context. Not financial advice.