TIA short funding and the October unlock: why shorts may get squeezed
Thread341 words
Bullish call$TIA−88%since this piece, moved against the callHow it played out ↓Argues crowded TIA shorts paying extreme funding ahead of the late-October unlock will face less sell pressure than expected, and a squeeze could revive interest as ecosystem projects launch.
Key claims
Shorts paying up to 380% per annum in OI-weighted funding
Unlock exceeds 80% of circulating supply at end of October
TIA is down more than 80% from its February ATH
Open interest on $TIA is rising steeply.
OI-weighted funding rates are reaching new highs for shorts.
$TIA shorters paying up to 380% per annum just to be short.
Notably, this is happening after an 80%+ drawdown from ATH in February.
Why is this happening and what does it mean? ⤵️
The narrative of the huge $TIA unlock (>80% of circ. supply) end of October has established itself in the market and everyone expects the VCs to dump it hard in early November.
Personally, I don't think it will happen.
When the unlock happens, the market will likely realize that there's far less sell pressure than the shorters are anticipating.
That will lead to the shorts getting blown out, and could re-ignite interest from sidelined buyers that were worried about the unlock.
$TIA has been down only for 7 months.
That was due to markets, but also due to a lack of "things to do" in the ecosystem.
Where are all the airdrops people talked about?
Where are the DeFi apps I can use my $TIA in?
In the next 1.5 months ahead of the unlock, I expect a lot of things to happen.
@CelestiaOrg will continue to push tech updates, ecosystem projects will be launching (and airdropping) as utility for $TIA will grow.
After all, @CelestiaOrg has been able to bootstrap an ecosystem of dozens of projects and coined an entire narrative simply riding the launch hype.
Now imagine how wild things could get if the entire ecosystem pushes even harder and markets start to recover.
Counter-consensus courage could be highly rewarded here imo.
NFA tho as the unlock will def introduce volatility.
Main takeaway here is to not just read, believe and follow your fav paid group shiller that tells you now it's the time to short $TIA.
DYOR anon (and buy a @CelestineSloths).
Still NFA.
Keep in mind that this is not entirely off either.
That it's all being hyped up around the unlocks is not a coincidence.
Always DYOR and be smart. Don't blindly follow the narratives.👇
x.com/crypto_condom/status/1835282312348537273
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How the call played out · since 15 Sep 2024
Prices as of 23 Oct 2026This piece takes a view on $TIA, so that move is read against the call.
−88%
Moved against the call · over 2.1 years
- At publication
- $4.66
- Now
- $0.554
- vs BTC
- −91%
- After 1 month
- +35%
- After 3 months
- +47%
- After 1 year
- −62%
- High since
- +90% 07 Dec 2024
- Low since
- −94% 03 Apr 2026
Since then
Zero has written 6 more pieces on Celestia and $TIA since this one.
- What If You Stop Seeing The Forest Because Of All The Trees?On Celestia
- Celestia 'Proof of Governance' proposal: 20x lower inflation and no stakingCovers $TIA
- Why TIA is one of the most predatory VC tokens: pricing, unlocks and inflationBearish call on $TIA
- Initia mainnet and what it means for Celestia's ecosystemCovers $TIA
Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish thesis is read as a call; explainers, maps and mentions are context. Not financial advice.