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Prediction markets and onchain betting: Azuro and Polymarket

Thread266 words
Market takePrediction marketsDeFiPartnerAzuroPolymarketBookmaker.xyzCastle Capital$AZUR
Bullish call$AZUR−99.7%since this piece, moved against the callHow it played out ↓

Argues onchain prediction markets and betting are a narrative to watch, citing Polymarket's election PMF and Azuro's composable infra for sports and arbitrary event risk. Frames the $250B-$300B traditional betting market as the addressable base. Includes a referral link.

Key claims
Traditional betting market valued at $250B-$300B in 2023
Azuro's composable infra allows risk overlays on games, apps and markets
Polymarket demonstrated PMF during the presidential election
Among my favourite apps in crypto rn are prediction markets and on-chain betting platforms. @Polymarket has impressively demonstrated its PMF amid the presidential elections. @azuroprotocol is doing the same with sports betting. This weekend I made 20x on a @bookmakerxyz (frontend built on @azuroprotocol's prediction market infra) bet on Japanese football games lol. Not trying to convince anyone to gamble, but keep an eye on this narrative. The traditional betting market was valued at $250B-$300B in 2023. Leveraging crypto's strengths such as composability, open innovation and hyper-financialization of all apps, @azuroprotocol allows the creation of on-chain risk-taking opportunities across any type of event. As we innovate on the UX front (chain abstraction, better interop, etc, this holds the potential to reshape the multi-billion $$$ betting industry. There is more though. Aside sports betting and co, @azuroprotocol's composable on-chain infra allows for additional risk overlays on top of existing games, apps, markets, metaverses, enabling disruptive innovation across many verticals and creating room for speculation beyond markets that already exist (e.g. sports betting) off-chain. I do also hold $AZUR for exactly that reason. NFA tho. DYOR anon. If you want to learn more about why prediction markets matter and what the state of the industry is (featuring both @polymarket and @azuroprotocol, check the below deep dive by @castle__cap. ⤵️ x.com/castle__cap/status/1836737700688285914 For more on @azuroprotocol's architecture and the overarching narrative, also check my thread below. ⤵️ x.com/zerokn0wledge_/status/1780989813333836201 If you want to give it a try yourself, feel free to use my referral link for @bookmakerxyz. ⤵️ By betting you also farm X Points for the upcoming $XYZ airdrop. bookmaker.xyz/?qwest=88b1a

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How the call played out · since 23 Sep 2024

Prices as of 23 Oct 2026

This piece takes a view on $AZUR, so that move is read against the call.

$AZURAzuro ProtocolBullish thesis

Holds AZUR because its composable onchain risk infra could reshape the multi-billion betting industry beyond sports.

−99.7%
Moved against the call · over 2.1 years
At publication
$0.0882
Now
$0.000222
vs BTC
−99.8%
After 1 month
+4.6%
After 3 months
−20%
After 1 year
−94%
High since
+26% 24 Sep 2024
Low since
−99.7% 23 Oct 2026
Since then

No follow-up pieces on this subject yet. This is the latest take.

Daily closes in USD from DefiLlama and Yahoo Finance. Only a bullish or bearish call in a thesis or market take is tracked; explainers, lists, maps and mentions are neutral context. This is a partner piece. Not financial advice.

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